Apple Shock, Rate Hike Fear Weigh on Ethereum: How Far Can ETH Fall?

Ethereum briefly hit its lowest level since April 2025 on Thursday. A partial recovery followed, but the coin is now testing a support zone analysts say has not been structurally defended since 2023.

Ethereum fell nearly 8% on Thursday, briefly touching $1,512 before partially recovering to $1,568 by Friday.

The selloff was not isolated to crypto. It was the final stage of a chain reaction that began with a US inflation reading, accelerated after an Apple pricing announcement, and triggered a sharp equity selloff.

On Thursday, the US Commerce Department reported that inflation rose 4.1% year-over-year in May, the highest annual increase since 2023, driven by energy and tech costs tied to AI demand, reducing expectations for Fed rate cuts, with some now even expecting a hike.

Shortly after, Apple CEO Tim Cook disclosed that the company was raising prices on Macs and iPads by up to 25%, triggering a sharp selloff: Apple dropped ~6% and major indices lost over $1 trillion in value.

Within the same 60-minute window, nearly $500 million in leveraged cryptocurrency long positions were liquidated. Bitcoin fell to $58,000 — a level not seen in 21 months — while Ethereum dropped to $1,500. Within the past 24 hours over $1 billion leveraged positions in crypto were wiped out of the market.

The Kobeissi Letter, a financial markets newsletter, attributed the speed and severity of the drop to record levels of leverage across markets, which it said amplifies swings in both directions.

The Kobeissi Letter’s analysts framed Thursday's events as a symptom of a structural market condition rather than a one-off event. 

The firm cited record leverage, persistent inflation above target, and broad uncertainty created by the pace of AI-driven technological change as conditions likely to sustain volatility.

"We believe volatility is here to stay," the newsletter stated.

The $1,500 level carries technical significance for Ethereum. It represents a support zone that held during the 2023 recovery period and has not been tested at this scale since. 

Research firm 10xResearch noted in its newsletter that the structural case for a recovery at this level is weaker than it appears on the surface.

"Ethereum is testing a critical support level," 10xResearch wrote. "If it breaks, the downside target is far lower than most expect." 

The firm added: "Now $1,600 is the last line of defense. Below that level, the pain accelerates sharply."

If $1,500 fails to hold, technical analysis points to the next meaningful support zone in the $1,100–$900 range — levels last reached during the depths of the 2022 bear market.

Prediction markets reflect similar expectations. On Kalshi, 68% of users forecast ETH will be below $1,250 by year-end. 35% expect ETH price to crash below $1,000.

Ethereum is trading at a structurally sensitive support zone last defended in 2023, where a breakdown could shift market psychology from correction to full-cycle bear market expectations.

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