Bitcoin Briefly Drops to $108K, ETFs Shed $471M: Analyst Forecasts Critical Moment

Bitcoin BTC $110 077 24h volatility: 2.7% Market cap: $2.19 T Vol. 24h: $74.50 B experienced a sharp correction, briefly falling to $108,000 before rebounding to $111,000 at the time of writing. The result was a massive $825 million in liquidations in the past 24 hours with $653 million in longs alone.

The leading cryptocurrency is now attempting to reclaim the $113,000–$115,000 range, a critical resistance zone that BTC needs to break above, to confirm a rally towards $120,000.

Bitcoin ETF Outflows Signal Investor Fatigue

On Oct. 29, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total net outflows of $471 million, with no inflows across all 12 funds. The exodus marks one of the largest single-day outflows since spot Bitcoin ETFs launched earlier this year.

On October 29 (ET), spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total net outflows of $471 million, with no inflows across all 12 ETFs. Spot Ethereum ETFs saw total net outflows of $81.44 million, with BlackRock’s ETHA being the only fund to register net inflows.https://t.co/Hj2Gs49bWa pic.twitter.com/V3lk6iUqKB

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) October 30, 2025

Meanwhile, Ethereum ETFs saw $81.44 million in outflows, with only BlackRock’s ETHA registering modest inflows, indicating waning short-term confidence among institutional investors following a period of significant volatility.

Analysts Warn of Cycle Divergence

According to analyst Jason Pizzino, Bitcoin’s long-term cyclical model may be facing its most significant test yet. His comparative chart, “Bitcoin Curves vs. Actual (2011–2025),” shows a widening gap between Bitcoin’s actual performance and its historical 5- and 10-year bull cycle composites.

While earlier in the year the price closely tracked the model, since September the actual trajectory has flattened while the composite curve continues to rise.

Bitcoin's 5 & 10-year composite cycle has a strong divergence forming. If BTC can't catch up soon, I'd say it's time to throw this one out. #Bitcoin #crypto pic.twitter.com/N4QpJNzpdj

— Jason Pizzino 🌞 (@jasonpizzino) October 30, 2025

 

This divergence indicates that Bitcoin’s current market structure may be diverging from traditional cycle behavior. Historically, this stage of the cycle has coincided with strong upward momentum, but the present slowdown raises doubts about whether historical analogues still hold.

Pizzino stated that if Bitcoin fails to regain momentum and close this gap soon, the predictive reliability of past cycle models may not apply anymore.

Whale Activity Adds to Market Caution

On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows a steady increase in the Binance Exchange Whale Ratio, a metric tracking the proportion of large BTC transfers to exchanges.

The 7-day EMA of the ratio climbed from 0.33 on October 12 to 0.41 by October 25, signaling that large holders have been consistently moving more Bitcoin onto exchanges, likely to sell into recent recoveries.

Bitcoin exchange whale ratio | Source: CryptoQuant

CryptoQuant analysts added that while retail investors may still be buying dips, whales, who control substantial liquidity, are offloading positions to lock in profits. Such behavior could limit Bitcoin’s upside in the near term and keep price action range-bound.

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