Bitcoin Could See a Bullish Breakout or a Downward Pull as It Retests Crucial 8-Year Trendline

A prominent analyst notes Bitcoin retesting a key long-term trendline, signaling a possible continuation of the uptrend or downward pull to lower levels. In a post on X, crypto analyst Michael noted that Bitcoin is retesting this 8-year trendline after reaching a new all-time high above $123,000. Bitcoin has since declined from this high, currently trading at $114,335, a 0.7% decline in the past day, following a 4.1% drop in the past week. The chart shared by Michael identifies the trendline as a key structure that has historically influenced Bitcoin’s market cycles. A sustained retest above the line could confirm a bullish move, while failure may lead to a correction. Historical Significance of the Bitcoin Trendline For context, the yellow ascending trendline began in late 2017 and cut through several major price moves. It first acted as resistance during the late 2017 bull run, when Bitcoin reached $19,834, before reappearing in later cycles, including 2021 when Bitcoin rose to around $64,000 but was rejected in April.

Although BTC later broke above the line, reaching a new all-time high above $69,000, the move faltered by early 2022, coinciding with the end of that cycle’s rally. The current chart shows a similar structure. Bitcoin broke above the trendline as it surged to a new all-time high above $123,000 but has since pulled back to retest the level. The immediate level to watch is $114,000 to $115,000, where Bitcoin is now trading. If Bitcoin holds this level and closes above the multi-year trendline again, it could trigger more upside. However, a drop below may resemble the failed breakout seen in 2022.  Bitcoin to $150-$200k Bearish Moves Next? Similarly, a chart shared by prominent trader Ash Crypto shows Bitcoin replicating its 2017 bull run. In 2017, BTC broke out of a series of descending channels before a vertical surge from $7,900 to its all-time high of $19,841.

Now, in 2025, the price is trading above a local low of $111,919 and beneath resistance at $116,000, mirroring the same setup seen before the final rally in 2017. Ash Crypto mentions that BTC is now in a parabolic phase and could be on the verge of another massive breakout, potentially targeting $150,000–$180,000 in the coming weeks. Similarly, a new side-by-side chart shared by Trending Bitcoin also highlights similarities between Bitcoin’s 2020–2022 bull cycle and the ongoing rally. 

In the earlier cycle, Bitcoin accumulated between $8,000 and $12,000 throughout 2020 before breaking out in 2021 and peaking at $69,000, exactly as former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes predicted.  The current cycle shows a similar structure, with a fresh breakout underway in 2025. Trending Bitcoin looks at the identical patterns, suggesting Hayes’s $250,000 forecasts are underway.  Notably, Peter Brandt had earlier predicted a $125K–$150K Bitcoin top by Q3 2025 if it regains its parabolic trendline, while Bernstein, Bitwise, and Robert Kiyosaki foresee a surge beyond $200K.