Bitcoin Price Prediction – BTC Could Rally to $76k as Trump Hints At Iran War De-Escalation

Highlights:

• Bitcoin rallies as trading volumes surge, signaling renewed investor appetite 
• Geopolitical developments fuel gains but uncertainty caps upside.
• Federal Reserve policy outlooks remain key medium-term risk, with high rates likely limiting more Bitcoin upside.

Bitcoin (BTC) has made some gains over the last 24 hours, invalidating the possibility of a price correction below $60k. When writing, Bitcoin was trading at $70,872, up by 4.2% in the day. At the same time, intraday trading volumes have shot up by 59.56% to stand at $49.52 billion. This is indicative of rising investor interest in the number one cryptocurrency and a signal to the sudden pivot to risk-on assets across the market. Bitcoin could continue to make minor gains, at least for the better part of the week.

Trump’s Extension of Ultimatum Triggers BTC Rebound

The key factor driving Bitcoin’s short-term price action is geopolitics. Geopolitics was the primary driver of Bitcoin’s and the stock market’s near-vertical rally on 23 March, ahead of the US markets’ opening.

President Trump took to Truth Social to announce that he was extending his ultimatum for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump stated that this had come with a positive engagement with Iran, and from the talks, had decided to cease all attacks on Iran’s energy and oil infrastructure for the next 5 days. The markets interpreted this as the likely beginning of the end of the war.

I AM PLEASED TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. BASED ON THE TENOR AND TONE OF THESE IN…

— Commentary: Trump Truth Social Posts On X (@TrumpTruthOnX) March 23, 2026

Even if the extension may not end the war, the markets believe it could put a stop to the escalation that was threatening to put the world economy at even greater risk. That’s because an escalation could impact the whole Middle Eastern power network if Iran retaliates, further hurting the world economy. As such, if the status quo remains as it is now, risk-on assets could enter a new bull run, including Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Could Drop If Iran Ignores Trump’s Overtures

However, there is a risk that could temper this newfound optimism in the markets. Immediately, Trump announced on social media, reports emerged that Iran had denied holding any talks with the US. The implication is that Iran may believe the US is buying time before continuing its attacks. As such, they could continue the attacks, forcing the US to continue the bombings as well.

In such a scenario, the gains that markets have made in the last 24 hours would be wiped out. The momentum built immediately after Trump’s announcement seems to have been cut short by Iran’s dismal performance. As such, the only hope the market is hanging on to now is that no escalation actually happens, regardless of what both sides say. 

IRANIAN MEDIA SAYS THERE WAS NO DIRECT OR INDIRECT CONTACT WITH TRUMP AND CLAIMS HE WITHDREW AFTER THREATENING TO ATTACK WEST ASIA ENERGY FACILITIES.

— Al Makhtoum (@AlMakhtoum_1) March 23, 2026

Interest Rates Could Determine Trend Direction In the Medium Term

Outside of the geopolitical play, another key factor likely to determine Bitcoin’s direction in the medium term is the interest rates. The US Federal Reserve recently took a hawkish pivot, effectively reducing the odds of a rate cut this year. If rates remain at current levels and the hostilities in the Middle East remain elevated, BTC could be headed much lower in the short term. Overall, Bitcoin’s price action at this point is driven more by external factors, particularly geopolitics, than by its fundamentals.

Bond traders priced in lower odds of even a single Federal Reserve interest-rate cut this year as Middle East warfare put upward pressure on oil prices and a US inflation gauge rose more than expected https://t.co/FCZ9sezPjs

— Bloomberg (@business) March 18, 2026

Technical Analysis – BTC Pushes Through Resistance, But Momentum Weak

The 24 March rally after Trump announced that the extension of Iran’s ultimatum pushed Bitcoin through the $70,410 resistance. However, following news that Iran had denied claims of talks, Bitcoin appears weak and unable to push past this resistance decisively.

If the markets believe the ceasing of hostilities will last, Bitcoin could rally to $76.085 in the short term. On the other hand, if hostilities resume, BTC could drop back below $70,410 and potentially target the $62,618 support. Which of these two scenarios plays out will depend on how the two sides act over the next few days. If hostilities reduce, a rally could follow, and vice versa.