Tron (TRX) Breakout Eyes New ATH at $0.50, but Here’s What Could Invalidate the Bullish Scenario

Analysts believe TRX, the Tron native token, could soon push to a new all-time high, but they caution that the rally may stumble if certain conditions change. CryptoOnChain, a verified analyst on CryptoQuant, highlighted this in a recent market report. Specifically, he pointed out that TRX continues to trade just under its historical resistance while activity on the Tron network has surged to record levels.  TRX Could Break to New ATH For context, daily active addresses recently reached a new peak of 2.6 million, indicating strong demand and growing user participation. He explained that this level of activity shows an upward trend and highlights rising interest in the network.

According to CryptoOnChain, TRX now sits right beneath its previous peak, and this often leads to a decisive price move. He said a true breakout would only occur if Tron closes either a daily or weekly candle above its old high above $0.4 and then stabilizes there. 

If this happens, the next target would likely land between $0.48 and $0.52, which would set a new ATH above the $0.45 peak from December 2024. He added that this range matches the levels shown on the On-Chain Value Bands chart, which calculates the top end of value based on realized price.

Nonetheless, there are still risks. Specifically, CryptoOnChain stressed that the bullish setup would fall apart if TRX fails to hold above its all-time high and if daily active addresses start to decline.  In this case, the breakout would likely lose steam, and the price could turn lower. He also noted that if the altcoin season arrives, when altcoins often outperform Bitcoin, the odds of TRX reaching $0.50 increase, especially if network activity keeps climbing. Analysts Agree TRX is in a Decisive Position Meanwhile, other analysts have shared their own views, as TRX currently trades around $0.33. For one, Bullish Banter argued that Tron has followed what he described as a smart money playbook.  https://twitter.com/bullishbanter01/status/1961060414038454667 He said the breakout structure already looks confirmed, with the coin retesting support near $0.351. He set his next liquidity target at $0.37 and noted that as long as $0.3289 holds as support, the path ahead still leans higher. Also, An Coldly, another analyst, said TRX now sits at a make-or-break level close to its all-time high at $0.45. According to him, a successful breakout would open up new price discovery, but a failed move could trigger a correction.  He also pointed out that the gap between TRX's current price and its realized price has widened. That signals large unrealized gains and losses, which often prompt profit-taking and increase the risk of a pullback. Tron Reduces Fees Amid Growing Network Activity Meanwhile, the Tron network is making decisive moves amid growing user activity. Tron's founder, Justin Sun, announced today that on August 26, 2025, the Tron Super Representative community approved a proposal to cut network fees by 60%, the biggest reduction since Tron's launch.  https://twitter.com/justinsuntron/status/1961310417155961036 The change took effect at 20:00 (GMT+8) today. Sun explained that users will see immediate benefits, though the cut will reduce short-term profitability. However, he suggested that over the long run, lower fees could drive more adoption and higher transaction volumes.  He added that the community will review fees every quarter and adjust them according to TRX's price, network activity, and growth to keep a balance between competitiveness and sustainability.