Analyst: Be Aware Of This Trump Risk As XRP Drifts On 200-Week Line

The analyst centers his argument on a Trump “48-hour warning” tweet timed to expire just after a three-day market closure, noting that the key moment fell “35 minutes after the stock market reopens” on Monday, April 6.

In Levi's view, that timing gives retail traders two days to “panic” while well-connected players prepare trades based on likely outcomes.

Levi outlines two broad scenarios: Trump escalating to direct strikes on Iran, or issuing yet another extension that lets insiders profit from the retail whipsaw. Either way, he says, “bulls get trapped, bears get trapped,” while those close to the administration benefit from asymmetric information.

During this same window, he notes, U.S.–Israeli airstrikes are already “destroying bridges in Iran,” and he speculates that any further escalation could target “power plants” and other “critical infrastructure that keeps people alive.”

Against that backdrop, the analyst points to a sharp retrace in digital assets. He claims total crypto market cap has fallen from over $4.3 trillion in October 2025 to $2.3 trillion by April, describing it as “pretty much 50%” wiped out in months. Bitcoin’s prior highs, he notes, have given way to broad risk-off behavior.

Levi's focus, however, is XRP.

On the weekly chart, he highlights a failed breakout above $2.42 in early 2026 and a slide from a $1.87 low back above $2 before the trend turned. XRP now trades around $1.31, he says, sitting below the 100-week simple moving average and nearing the 200-week SMA at roughly $1.14 — which he repeatedly calls “the number 1 bear market buy signal.”

In the previous cycle, buying XRP near its 200-week line meant accumulating at around $0.30, a level that ultimately marked the bear-market floor, he argues.

On the daily chart, he draws parallels with the 2021–2022 structure: a peak, a steep sell-off, a second “double top”-style rally attempt, then a long grind lower.

By his historical read, the market may be “just a few months away” from finding a new bottom driven by inflation, geopolitics, and potential rate hikes — with any recovery in 2027 after rate declines and easing tensions.

The analyst says he is “heavily invested,” claims to be deploying “billions of dollars” into crypto, and expects most retail participants to capitulate before that bottom arrives.

While he frames it as the period when “millionaires are made,” the more immediate takeaway for investors is less inspirational: geopolitical theatre, timed announcements, and structural information gaps may matter as much as charts when positioning for the next phase of the cycle.

In the meantime, Levi Rietveld describes sitting largely in stablecoins, parking funds on a yield platform called Coin Depot, which he says has operated since 2021 and advertises up to 23% APY on assets including Bitcoin, Ethereum, USDT, USDC, XRP, and XLM.

Finally, he presents this as a way to “earn interest” while waiting for what he expects to be a 200-week-SMA flush in XRP sometime in 2026.

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