XLM Price Prediction: Ready to Rally or Crash?

Stellar (XLM) price has been moving in a tight range, frustrating both bulls and bears. But the current price structure and technical indicators from both the hourly and daily charts suggest that XLM price might be gearing up for a decisive move. Let’s dig into the data and see what the charts are telling us.

Stellar Price Prediction: Is XLM Price Stuck or Ready for a Breakout?

On the hourly chart, XLM price is hovering around $0.287 with price tightly squeezed between major moving averages. The 20, 50, 100, and 200 SMAs are all flattening out around this level, suggesting a consolidation phase. Notably, the 200 SMA (currently at $0.28918) is acting as a dynamic resistance. Until XLM price convincingly clears this, upside potential remains capped.

But here’s where it gets interesting: the last few Heikin Ashi candles are showing higher lows, indicating buying pressure is slowly building. The short-term resistance is at $0.2885–$0.2890. A clean break above this zone with a 1H close above $0.29 could initiate a push towards $0.295.

The recent bottom around $0.272 seems to have formed a temporary support base. Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the May high ($0.35) to recent low ($0.27) places the 23.6% level at approximately $0.288 — exactly where price is struggling. This confluence makes $0.288 a critical decision level.

What Does the Daily Chart Say?

The daily chart shows a broader consolidation within a symmetrical triangle, with the price consistently finding support at the 50-day SMA ($0.27900) and resistance at the 200-day SMA ($0.33118). Currently, XLM price is trading at $0.28588, just below the 20-day SMA ($0.29506), which has become a short-term ceiling.

This tight sandwiching between the 50 SMA and 20 SMA tells us that volatility is getting compressed. Historically, such setups have resulted in large breakouts. Using the height of the triangle (roughly $0.10 from top to base), the potential breakout target is around $0.38 if the bulls push through.

Pivot levels further strengthen this outlook. The R1 pivot on the daily chart is at $0.384, aligning with our calculated breakout target. A move past $0.295 (20 SMA) would likely trigger a test of $0.31, then $0.35, and potentially $0.38.

Can the Bulls Pull It Off?

Let’s calculate a hypothetical breakout scenario. If XLM price closes above $0.295 and gains just 20% (a conservative bull-run based on prior impulse moves), it would reach:

$0.295 × 1.20 = $0.354

This matches the upper resistance trendline from the April highs and could act as a major profit-taking zone. However, if sentiment remains strong, Stellar price might even stretch towards $0.38–$0.40 range — its pre-April dump levels.

Stellar Price Prediction: What If XLM Price Breaks Down?

If Stellar price fails to hold above the 50-day SMA ($0.27900) and breaks below $0.272 support, the next likely target is $0.258, followed by $0.242, based on Fibonacci levels and previous horizontal support zones.

Final Take: What's Next for XLM Price?

Stellar price is currently sitting on a knife’s edge. The convergence of major moving averages and compressed price action hints at an imminent breakout. If bulls reclaim the 20-day SMA and break above $0.295, a rally toward $0.35 and even $0.38 is very possible in the coming days. On the flip side, a drop below $0.272 would put bears in control, dragging the price closer to $0.25 or lower.

Watch for volume confirmation and a decisive hourly close above $0.29 — that could be the green light for bulls to charge ahead.

$XLM $Stellar