Analyst Eyes Brief Window For BTC Below $60K: How About XRP?

The presenter says they have waited “four whole years” to share the historical comparison, framing it as data that changed his understanding of crypto market behavior. Levi's focus is not on a specific XRP price target, but on the possibility that another Bitcoin-led downturn would eventually pull major altcoins, including XRP and XLM, lower as well.

The video highlights an infographic comparing past Bitcoin cycles. According to the presenter’s reading of the chart, Bitcoin experienced bull-market periods lasting eight months, 24 months and then roughly 35 months, followed by bear markets of five, 14 and 12 months.

Levi Rietveld emphasizes the repeated appearance of a 35-month expansion followed by a 12-month decline, arguing that the market may be entering a similar phase again. They describe the current downturn as being about 10 months old and suggest that, if the historical rhythm holds, the remaining weakness could be relatively short-lived.

“Everything moves around Bitcoin,” he says, adding that Bitcoin generally moves first in both directions. That view reflects a familiar market dynamic: altcoins can outperform during risk-on phases, but they often remain vulnerable when Bitcoin sentiment turns defensive.

Unlike Bitcoin, XRP is presented as having a less consistent bull-and-bear pattern. The video points to a lengthy XRP bear market running from January 2018 through December 2020, followed by a comparatively short rally that ended in 2021.

That distinction matters because the speaker does not claim XRP mirrors Bitcoin’s timing exactly. Instead, the argument is that a Bitcoin-led bear market would probably weigh on XRP and XLM if it materializes, even though token-specific factors can alter the scale and timing of their moves.

The presenter repeatedly cautions that “nothing is guaranteed in investing,” while saying they are preparing to act if Bitcoin again trades below $60,000. The claim is based on historical cycle comparisons rather than a disclosed macro model, liquidity analysis or token-specific catalyst.

Past cycle durations can offer context, but they are not a reliable timetable. Changes in institutional participation, regulation, interest rates and market structure could make the next cycle look materially different from the chart presented in the video.

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