Iran Earns $140M a Day as US Turns Blind Eye and Bloomberg Models $164 Oil

Iran oil prices around the Strait of Hormuz have shifted dramatically since the conflict began. Iran is earning an estimated $140 million a day from oil exports while firing at tankers in the same waterway. Ship transits collapsed from a daily average of 129 in February to just 4, according to UN Trade and Development data. Bloomberg Economics has mapped four closure scenarios and if the strait stays shut for three months, Brent crude hits $164 per barrel. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed the US is letting Iranian oil ships through to keep global supply stable.

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Bloomberg Maps Four Hormuz Scenarios as Ship Transits Collapse to 4 a Day

Iran Collects $140M Daily While Blocking Everyone Else

Iran has loaded roughly 1.5 to 1.6 million barrels per day onto tankers at Kharg Island since the conflict started, according to Kpler and Vortexa. At a $10 discount to Brent due to US sanctions, that volume works out to around $140 million a day in Iran oil revenue. Even after US airstrikes hit Kharg Island, the pace didn’t change.

Jashan Prema at Kpler stated:

“It has been fairly consistent, we have not seen a big change.”

The Bloomberg Hormuz oil price forecast shows a one-month closure pushing Brent sharply higher before easing, a two-month closure taking it to around $140, and a three-month closure sending Brent crude to $164 per barrel at peak.

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Scott Bessent Says Washington Is Letting Iranian Ships Through

Scott Bessent addressed the Iran oil price situation directly on Monday, confirming Washington is prepared to tolerate Iranian sales despite existing sanctions.

Bessent told CNBC:

“The Iranian ships have been getting out already and we have let that happen to supply the rest of the world. We think that there will be a natural opening that the Iranians are letting out and for now we are fine with that. We want the world to be well supplied.”

Helima Croft at RBC Capital warned:

“If we continue up this escalation ladder, a move to restrict Iranian oil exports will likely gain more Oval Office traction.”

Dalio and Pape Say Iran Is Winning

RAY DALIO: HORMUZ COULD DECIDE THE WINNER

Ray Dalio argues the real test in the Iran conflict is who controls the Strait of Hormuz.

If Iran can disrupt oil flows through the chokepoint, it could undermine confidence in U.S. leadership and financial assets.

If trade flows… pic.twitter.com/rFziuNCEwk

— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) March 17, 2026

Ray Dalio has argued that whoever controls the Strait of Hormuz controls the outcome of this conflict. If Iran disrupts oil flows through the chokepoint, it undermines confidence in US leadership. If trade stays open, it signals US strength.

Iran oil revenue keeps flowing and Iran is currently deciding who gets through.

Good morning, Asia. While you were sleeping, one of our most-read stories was about how Iran could be earning more than $140mn a day from selling oil as prices surge. Why is Washington prepared to tolerate the trade? https://t.co/R3uRqOnu4v pic.twitter.com/X1cYELBaEj

— Financial Times (@FT) March 17, 2026

Professor Robert Pape stated:

“Iran is more powerful now than before the war — it controls the price of world oil and more likely to fracture the US coalition than US is to grow it. Stunning gains in 17 days.”

The Hormuz oil price forecast shifts entirely based on whether those transit numbers recover. With Brent crude at $164 still a real scenario and Scott Bessent under growing pressure in Washington over his stance on Iranian oil, the situation remains far from resolved.

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