Raoul Pal Predicts Bitcoin Peak in 2026 Despite Debt Shift

• Bitcoin’s market cycle extends to 2026 due to longer global debt maturity.
• Liquidity drives 90% of Bitcoin’s value changes, outweighing earnings or geopolitics.
• High rates delay growth, but expanding liquidity supports crypto momentum into 2026.

Macro investor Raoul Pal has stated that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year market rhythm has shifted into a five-year cycle, projecting the next peak to occur around the second quarter of 2026. His analysis connects this shift to a structural change in global debt maturity, extending the usual business cycle by roughly a year.

Raoul Pal: "The 4-year cycle is now the 5-year cycle.. Bitcoin should peak in 2026. Probably Q2."pic.twitter.com/jnU50Z5dib

— Altcoin Daily (@AltcoinDaily) October 21, 2025

Speaking on Real Vision, Pal explained that the maturity of government debt was lengthened from four to five years betwee…

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