Price of Bitcoin Drops from ATH, Here’s Why

The price of Bitcoin topped a record $111,800 in May, before retracing sharply to below $105,000. This rapid retreat followed a wave of profit-taking by investors who held coins for more than 12 months.

The latest Week On Chain report from Glassnode shows realized profits surged to $1.47 billion per day, marking the fifth major distribution event of this cycle.

The scale of these outflows now tests critical support levels near $103,700 and $95,600, as seasoned holders shift from accumulation to selling.

Glassnode: Profit-Taking by Veteran Holders

Glassnode’s latest report highlights that cohorts holding Bitcoin for over a year led to this profit realization.

Long-term holders contributed the majority of the $1.47 billion in daily gains taken off the table. By contrast, short-term traders accounted for just $0.32 billion in realized profits per day.

This divergence underscores a maturing market, where veteran investors shape price tops rather than rapid speculators.

The CBD (Cumulative Volume Delta) Heatmap reveals key price bands that once served as accumulation zones now act as distribution zones.

Historical ranges at $25,000–31,000, $38,000–44,000, and $60,000–73,000 show heavy sell pressure.

Those levels supported the price of Bitcoin, helping it to rise but have reversed roles as earlier buyers seize gains. The flip of these zones suggests supply may outweigh demand until deeper support emerges.

On-chain cost-basis models identify $103,700 and $95,600 as the next critical floors. The 0.95 Spent Supply Distribution (SSD) quantile—representing the top 5% of coins being spent—sits at $103,700.

Breaching of this level could trigger accelerated selling. The 0.85 quantile at $95,600 may then serve as a secondary buffer.

Meanwhile, the Short-Term Holder (STH) cost-basis averages $97,100 for coins held under 155 days. Its +1 standard deviation band lies at $114,800, aligning with the recent peak.

The –1 standard deviation band at $83,200 highlights deeper downside risk if support fails.

Price of Bitcoin Repeats Past Cycle Patterns

Bitcoin’s swift move beyond $111,800 echoed past cycle tops in 2017 and 2021. Each time, heavy profit-taking by long-term holders preceded corrections into multi-month consolidation phases.

The current realized-profit wave—surpassing $1 billion per day—mirrors those historical patterns. However, profit-taking intensity has moderated over successive cycles.

Unlike the 2017 peak, when realized profits topped 0.4% of market cap, today’s highs near 0.1% reflect a more tempered, mature market.

Traders should watch $103,700 closely. Holding above this level may keep bullish scenarios alive. Failure could open a slide toward $95,600 or lower, near the mid-cycle pivot at $93,000.

For long-term investors, the shift from accumulation to distribution underscores the need to vet entry points against on-chain support bands.

Glassnode’s data confirms that long-term holders are driving current price action. Distribution from historical accumulation zones now weighs on momentum.

Critical support at $103,700 and $95,600 will determine whether Bitcoin can stabilize or enter a deeper correction.

As the price of Bitcoin tests these thresholds, on-chain metrics remain the most reliable guide for what comes next.

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