Could Bitcoin Slide to $50k? 100-Week SMA Break Revives Bear Case

Ali Martinez’s latest chart thread has reignited a familiar fear among traders. Bitcoin (BTC) might be gearing up for a deep, historically consistent correction, he said. Martinez tweeted that the 100-week simple moving average (SMA) has long served as a macro floor for BTC, and every time the price has closed below that line since 2015, it has failed to reclaim it quickly, instead sliding toward the 200-week SMA and suffering heavy drawdowns.

Those past episodes are stark. Martinez, and the many analysts echoing him, point to December 2014 when BTC fell about 55% to reach the 200-week zone in roughly 35 days; November 2018’s 45% drop that took about four weeks; the COVID crash in March 2020 that forced a 47% slide in a matter of days; and the May 2022 breakdown that unfolded into a 58% fall over some seven weeks. Taken together, Martinez warns the pattern usually plays out across 30–50 days and results in corrections in the 45%–58% range.

The Timing of the Warning Matters

Markets around the world reacted this week after Bitcoin’s weekly candle closed beneath the 100-week SMA, a breach several outlets said removes a key macro support and raises the odds of further downside. Traders saw last week’s selling push BTC as low as the mid-$70,000s before a modest rebound, and a number of on-chain commentators and platforms described the weekly close as a meaningful technical turning point.

Price today sits well below the highs seen late last year: Bitcoin is trading in the upper $70,000s on the major tickers as markets opened Tuesday. That leaves a wide gap between current levels and the historical 200-week band that Martinez says could act as the next magnet. Based on the math he shared, a roughly 50% drawdown from recent peaks would imply a downside zone somewhere between about $56,000 and $50,000, a move he suggests could materialize by March or April if past cycles repeat.

Not everyone is resigned to that path. Some strategists point to pockets of deep liquidity and institutional flows that could cushion further falls, while others emphasize that broader macro forces, from U.S. interest-rate expectations to dollar strength, are now the primary drivers of crypto risk appetite. Business Insider and other outlets have rounded up alternative scenarios, including price forecasts that see deeper retreats toward the low-to-mid $40,000s if selling accelerates, showing the range of outcomes traders are preparing for.

Martinez himself tempered the alarm with a trader’s caveat. Historical patterns raise probabilities; they do not determine exact outcomes, and price confirmation plus elapsed time are essential before declaring a new regime. For now, the market is in a “watch closely” phase, one that will likely keep both tactical traders and long-term holders on edge as they weigh whether to defend current levels, add to positions, or step aside until the macro picture clears.