Iran Called for Lebanon Ceasefire and Got It: How Markets Have Moved

A ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon just moved two of the world’s biggest commodity markets simultaneously.

Israel and Lebanon agreed to implement a ceasefire on Thursday, June 4.

WTI crude dropped more than 3% to $92.87 per barrel in one of the sharpest single-session moves in weeks. Spot gold settled at $4,475, up more than 1%, as the dollar weakened and Treasury yields eased on the prospect of lower geopolitical risk.

Traders are also watching whether the deal unlocks progress on a broader US-Iran agreement.

Why Lebanon Changes the Iran Calculation

Thursday’s agreement clears one of Iran’s preconditions, reviving market hopes that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen, the waterway through which roughly 20% of global oil supply passes.

Crude Oil price following the announcement of the ceasefire. Image source: Trading Economics

As BeInCrypto reported when earlier Iran deal rumors sent markets swinging by $500 billion in a single session, oil traders are not waiting for a signed agreement to reprice.

The risk is that the IEA has warned global oil markets will remain undersupplied through Q3 2026 even if the conflict ends, because damaged infrastructure and OPEC+ (the alliance of major oil-producing nations) decisions take months to reverse.

What Gold Knows That Oil Does Not

Oil fell because traders priced out supply risk. Gold rose for a separate reason, primarily because the ceasefire weakened the dollar, and a weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for international buyers.

With the Federal Reserve holding rates at 3.5-3.75% and rate hike odds now near 30% by December, gold is finding support in monetary conditions, not just war fear.

Bitcoin, which rallied sharply when the conflict began, has since given back all those gains as the war premium gradually unwound.

The Lebanon deal is one condition met, not a peace treaty. But energy markets are already discounting what comes next, and Friday’s US nonfarm payrolls data will either reinforce or disrupt that repricing.