Japan canceled a planned July 1 security meeting with the US

Japan just shut down a high-level meeting with the United States after the Trump administration increased its demand for defense spending without warning.

The summit, which was supposed to happen on July 1 in Washington, was part of the annual “2+2” talks between top officials from both countries.

On the US side, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth were scheduled to sit down with Japan’s Defense Minister Gen Nakatani and Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya. But Tokyo canceled. And they didn’t bother dressing it up.

The entire thing blew up when Elbridge Colby, the third-most senior official at the Pentagon, pushed a new demand for Japan to increase its defense budget to 3.5% of GDP. Just weeks ago, the number was 3%. Three people close to the talks, including two Tokyo officials, said this last-minute demand crossed a line.

Tensions grow as Japan cancels meeting before key election

The July 20 Upper House elections are another factor. A senior official in Japan said the ruling Liberal Democratic Party is already bracing for seat losses, and the leadership didn’t want to deal with a public defense clash with Washington just weeks before voters hit the polls. Canceling the 2+2 meeting was seen as less risky than walking into it with a US delegation pressing for more military spending.

Christopher Johnstone, a former US government official who worked on Japan policy, said Tokyo usually treats these meetings as a top priority. “They provide politically valuable opportunities to showcase the strength of the US-Japan alliance,” he said.

But this time, he said Tokyo clearly felt “the political risk of a meeting before the election was higher than the potential gain.” Johnstone now works as a partner at The Asia Group, a strategic advisory firm.

The defense drama comes as the Trump administration pressures both Europe and Asia to increase military budgets. Speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore last month, Pete told a room full of defense ministers and military leaders that America expects its allies to “follow the newfound example” of European nations stepping up. He pointed at China and North Korea as reasons for raising defense spending in the Pacific.

A US defense official said bluntly, “The US is now playing hardball with allies in the Asia-Pacific.”

Elbridge has been leading that effort. During his Senate confirmation hearing in March, he publicly called on Japan to raise its budget. That didn’t sit well with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who pushed back. Ishiba said budget decisions will be made by Japan, not the Pentagon. Not only did that moment get attention in Tokyo, but it also set the tone for how the rest of this relationship has gone.

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