Trump’s 90-Day Tariff Pause Can’t Shake Polymarket’s 65% Recession Odds

• Polymarket shows high 65% odds for a US recession occurring during 2025
• Trump administration announces unexpected 90-day pause on new tariffs
• Recession odds on Polymarket stay elevated (65%) despite the 90-day tariff pause

The likelihood of a U.S. recession in 2025 has soared to 65% on blockchain-based prediction platform Polymarket. 

Lingering effects of the earlier interest rate hike announcements, the trade policy shifts, and weakening market conditions, fuel the increase in perceived risk.

Why Are Polymarket Recession Odds Surging?

Speculators on Polymarket now assign a 65% probability to a U.S. recession this year, up from 26% when President Donald Trump took office in January. 

The market defines a recession by the standard measure: two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth.

These odds show a steady climb over the recent weeks with growing concern among investors and analysts. Kalshi, another prediction platform, had placed recession odds at 18% at the start of the year.

Further compounding the probability, Goldman Sachs has raised its recession forecast to 45%, up from 35%. On the same note, JPMorgan estimates 60%. Notably,…

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