Nvidia Hits $4 Trillion—Does Bitcoin Still Follow Tech’s Lead?

Nvidia's record-breaking ascent to a $4 trillion market cap has once again fueled debate around the shifting dynamics between Big Tech and Bitcoin. As the stock of the AI chipmaker rose to record highs, traders and analysts are parsing whether Bitcoin is once more riding tech tailwinds—or crypto is finally going solo.

Nvidia's shares hit an all-time high of $164.32, temporarily becoming the world's first $4 trillion company. The rally has been fueled by insatiable demand for AI chips, with investors seeing Nvidia as the bedrock of the artificial intelligence revolution that is now unfolding. The company's valuation is the same as the GDP of the world's most significant economies, showing the scale of the AI boom.

Bitcoin and Nvidia: Correlation Data Tells a Nuanced Story

For the majority of 2024 and the beginning of 2025, Bitcoin and Nvidia moved together, having correlation factors as high as 0.80 or higher—a very unusual level between disparate sectors' assets. This tight linkage reflected a broader ”risk-on” environment in which money entered crypto and AI stocks as proxies for growth and innovation.

But newer figures show that the correlation is starting to weaken. While the three-month average remains reasonably healthy at 0.69, the newer figures have dropped back to around 0.36, indicating decoupling as investor interest waxes elsewhere.

Of interest is the fact that Bitcoin's new all-time high of over $111,900 occurred roughly around the time of Nvidia's $4T mark, but analysts caution that this may be indicative of overall market euphoria and not a sustained trend.

• 2023-2024: Rolling 90-day correlation between BTC and NVDA was between 0.45-0.6, indicating moderate positive correlation.
• Q2 2025: Correlation has fallen below 0.3, with some weeks of near-zero or even negative readings, as Bitcoin lagged despite Nvidia moving relentlessly upwards.

The changing relationship between Nvidia and Bitcoin reflects diverging market drivers. Nvidia’s surge is powered by relentless AI demand and enterprise tech investment, while Bitcoin’s price action is increasingly shaped by macroeconomic uncertainty and crypto-specific events.

As AI stocks become crowded trades, investors are rotating funds, but Bitcoin is now moving more on its own fundamentals—like halving cycles and regulatory news—than on Big Tech momentum. This marks a clear shift: Bitcoin is decoupling from the tech rally and forging an independent path.

AI Chip Supply Chains: Indirect Impact on Crypto Mining

Nvidia's leadership in AI chips' market share has spill-over benefits across the digital asset world, especially across crypto mining:

• ASIC Supply Chain Restriction: With demand for AI surging, semiconductor manufacturing facilities like TSMC and Samsung are prioritizing orders for AI chips, restricting supply chains for Bitcoin mining devices. This can lead to increased costs and longer lead times for ASIC miners, restricting profitability.
• Geopolitical Shifts: Tariffs and trade tensions are leading top ASIC manufacturers to set up production in the US, reshaping the global mining supply chain and even driving up miner expenses.
• AI-Blockchain Convergence: Mining operators are utilizing AI-driven analytics to optimize operations and supply chains, with blockchain offering transparency and traceability of hardware origins.

Nvidia's $4T milestone is a testiment to the robustness of the AI bubble, but the era of Bitcoin keeping pace with Big Tech is likely behind us. As macro dynamics and crypto-native forces come into relief, investors must look for a less overt and more uncertain alignment between the world's leading AI chipmaker and the digital currency monarch.