Crypto punters predict President Joe Biden’s election exit, but he vows to stay in the race

The odds of President Joe Biden dropping out of the US presidential race surged on betting platforms after his first debate against Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican candidate and the primary contender for the Oval Office. However, President Biden remains resolute, declaring his intention to win the presidential election in November.

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On June 27, Biden faced Trump in a debate that ended poorly for him. His struggles reportedly led some Democratic lawmakers to discuss whether he should step down, as even some of his former aides and strong supporters admitted it was a poor showing.

Bettors expect Biden to drop out

Following the debate, Biden’s chances of being the Democratic nominee plummeted to a 15-month low on record volume. Data from Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market, indicates that many believe he will either withdraw from the election, be dropped by the Democratic Party, or lose heavily to Trump if he runs.

A Polymarket contract asking if Biden will drop out shows a 43% chance of him withdrawing, with the number of bettors choosing “Yes” increasing by over 100% in the last 24 hours. While Polymarket does not necessarily reflect public opinion, the platform has gained mainstream attention and has been cited by Trump’s campaign as proof of his growing support.

Jim Bianco, the President and founder of Bianco Research, highlighted the unusually high volume of bets, noting that prediction markets are “real-time, so when events like last night happen, they can measure how much things have changed.” He added:

“Our interpretation is that Biden is in a deep hole that he may be unable to climb out of. However, if Biden is replaced with someone acceptable, Trump might not win either. In other words, Trump may have had a pyrrhic victory last night.”

Meanwhile, the chart above shows that Biden’s troubles greatly benefited Trump. After the debate, the former President’s odds of winning the US presidential election soared to a record high of 64%, according to Polymarket data.

Biden shows defiance

Nonetheless, President Biden has sought to calm Democrats’ fears about his candidature in the forthcoming elections. In a spirited speech at a rally in Raleigh, North Carolina, he admitted to some of his weaknesses but asserted his determination to win the election.

Also Read: Crypto snubbed at the first 2024 US presidential debate

Biden stated:

“Folks, I don’t walk as easy as I used to. I don’t speak as smoothly as I used to. I don’t debate as well as I used to. But I know what I do know. I know how to tell the truth. I know right from wrong. And I know how to do this job. I know how to get things done. And I know what millions of Americans know: When you get knocked down, you get back up.”

Also, his supporters have rallied behind him, arguing he is the better choice than former President Trump. Billionaire investor Mark Cuban noted that while Biden’s debate performance was poor, Trump failed to answer any questions directly and lied in every response.

Cuban continued that while “Trump is far better than Biden at soundbites and marketing,”  he would still vote for Biden because he is “the ethical candidate who unquestionably stands by his oath and puts country over self-interest.”