Arthur Hayes Predicts $200K Bitcoin as US Treasury Prepares Liquidity Injection

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has once again captured the attention of the crypto community, this time with a bold projection: Bitcoin could surge past $110,000 and potentially reach $200,000, driven not by traditional market cycles, but by U.S. Treasury buybacks set to inject fresh liquidity into the financial system.

“Once these buybacks begin in earnest, the crypto markets will ignite,” Hayes wrote, forecasting a major influx of capital into Bitcoin as investors react to shifting monetary dynamics.

Treasury Buybacks: A New Era of Liquidity?

The U.S. Treasury is preparing to roll out a buyback program to retire illiquid “off-the-run” bonds. These are older securities that trade less frequently compared to newer issues, which complicates portfolio rebalancing for institutional investors.

Although the Treasury claims the program will be net-cash-neutral, offsetting buybacks with equivalent debt issuance, Arthur Hayes argues the reality is different. He believes that increased liquidity will find its way into speculative assets, particularly Bitcoin.

“This opens up capital for hedge funds playing the basis trade—borrowing cheap money to buy bonds and short futures—and in turn, releases more liquidity into the system,” he explained.

A Look Back: Echoes of 2022’s Bitcoin Surge

Arthur Hayes draws parallels between this upcoming liquidity injection and a similar macro setup in mid-2022. At that time, dovish policies and a flush bond market catalyzed a nearly 600% increase in Bitcoin’s price, which soared from $17,000 to over $69,000 in less than 18 months.

With inflation subsiding and the Federal Reserve’s tightening phase tapering off, Hayes believes the conditions are once again ripe for a dramatic Bitcoin rally.

Arthur Hayes Bitcoin Price Forecast: $110K First, Then $200K?

Hayes predicts that Bitcoin could surpass $110,000 in the initial phase of the Treasury’s intervention, especially if the liquidity boost aligns with growing institutional demand.

“If this works like 2022, Bitcoin’s move won’t just be big—it’ll be explosive,” he said.

He further speculates that continued deficit spending, weakening USD strength, and further buybacks could push Bitcoin toward $200,000, a milestone that would cement BTC’s role as a global macro hedge.

Market Reaction and Institutional Sentiment

Bitcoin has already responded to macro shifts, recently trading above $66,000 at press time, with year-to-date gains approaching 50%. Institutional inflows have increased notably in April, with Coinbase reporting large-scale BTC purchases from sovereign wealth and insurance funds.

These developments align closely with Arthur Hayes’ thesis that traditional capital is pivoting to Bitcoin amid growing concerns over fiat debasement.

Altcoins: Will They Follow?

While Arthur Hayes is bullish on Bitcoin, he offers a more nuanced view on altcoins. “The majority of this macro-driven liquidity will go into Bitcoin first,” he wrote. “Only after BTC firmly breaks $110K will we see capital rotate into alts.”

He recommends focusing on altcoins with cash flow models, staking rewards, or real-world adoption. Projects without clear revenue or use-case metrics may struggle in the shadow of Bitcoin’s dominance.

Updated BTC Price Table

Source: CoinMarketCap, TradingView

Expert Opinions on Hayes’ Forecast

While Arthur Hayes’ forecasts are known for being bold, analysts aren’t brushing them off. “Liquidity is the fuel for all risk-on assets,” said QCP Capital in a recent market report. “If Treasury buybacks coincide with dovish Fed language, it’s not unthinkable for BTC to break previous highs.”

Veteran trader Scott Melker echoed this: “Arthur might be right again. Bitcoin’s reaction to macro flows is stronger than ever.”

Conclusion

Arthur Hayes’ forecast might sound ambitious, but it’s deeply rooted in a macroeconomic narrative that is unfolding in real time. With U.S. Treasury buybacks set to reintroduce liquidity and institutional sentiment warming up, Bitcoin could be gearing up for another historic run.

Whether it’s $110K or $200K, one thing is clear: the crypto market is watching Washington as closely as it’s watching Wall Street.

FAQs

What are Treasury buybacks?

Treasury buybacks involve the U.S. government repurchasing older bonds from the market to increase liquidity and stabilize yields.

Why does Arthur Hayes believe BTC will rise?

Hayes argues that Treasury buybacks will inject liquidity into financial markets, prompting capital to flow into Bitcoin as a hedge asset.

Is $200,000 a realistic target for Bitcoin?

While speculative, Hayes believes it’s possible if fiscal conditions align with strong institutional demand and a favorable macro environment.

When could this rally begin?

Analysts expect the effects of buybacks to be visible in Q2–Q3 2025, potentially triggering bullish momentum in BTC prices.

Glossary

Buybacks: Government or corporate repurchases of previously issued securities to control liquidity or price.

Basis Trade: An arbitrage strategy involving bond purchases and short futures to capture price differentials.

Liquidity: The availability of cash or cash equivalents in the market influences investment behavior.

Off-the-Run Bonds: Older Treasury securities that are less liquid than newly issued “on-the-run” ones.

Macro Hedge: An investment used to guard against broad economic risks, such as inflation or currency devaluation.

Sources

crypto.news

CryptoSlate

coinmarketcap

tradingview

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