XRP Faces Crucial Test as EGRAG Assigns 70% Odds to Bullish Scenario

• EGRAG assigns a 65% to 70% probability to XRP’s bullish AMD scenario.
• A reclaim of $1.80 could support moves toward $5.50 and beyond.
• A breakdown below $0.78 would weaken structure and favor bears.

Crypto analyst EGRAG CRYPTO has outlined a scenario that places XRP at one of its most important technical crossroads in recent years. According to his latest market update, the asset is approaching a stage where a successful defense of macro support could pave the way for a major expansion phase, while failure could reinforce a broader bearish structure.

XRP’s Future Hinges on the Battle Between $1.80 and $0.78

EGRAG’s latest chart analysis suggests that XRP remains locked in a decisive phase where the market must determine whether the recent decline represents a temporary liquidity-driven setback or the beginning of a broader bearish cycle. While price action has weakened over recent months, the analyst argues that the overall structure still resembles the manipulation stage of the AMD model rather than a completed market top.

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The AMD framework, which stands for Accumulation, Manipulation, and Distribution, is commonly used to identify how major market participants position themselves throughout a cycle. In XRP’s case, EGRAG believes the current environment continues to display characteristics associated with liquidity harvesting, trader exhaustion, and sentiment deterioration, conditions that have historically appeared before significant trend reversals.

Based on that interpretation, he currently assigns a 65% to 70% probability to the bullish scenario. Under this outlook, XRP would maintain its macro support structure before eventually reclaiming higher resistance levels that could open the door to a much larger expansion phase.

A major part of the bullish thesis revolves around the $1.80 level, which EGRAG identifies as the most important resistance area on the chart. A successful recovery above that zone would strengthen the broader structure and provide evidence that buyers have regained control following months of corrective price action. Should that occur, the analyst believes XRP could begin advancing toward long-term targets of $5.50, $7.00, and potentially $9.40 or higher.

Bearish Case Remains Tied to Critical Support Zone

Despite maintaining a favorable outlook, EGRAG acknowledged that the market still faces downside risks that cannot be ignored. He estimates the probability of the bearish scenario at between 30% and 35%, emphasizing that a failure to preserve key support could significantly alter XRP’s long-term trajectory.

In the bearish case, XRP would first struggle to establish itself above major resistance before eventually revisiting the $0.78 support level. According to EGRAG, that price point represents the most important line on the chart because it separates what could be interpreted as bullish manipulation from a genuine bearish continuation pattern.

A decisive breakdown below $0.78 would weaken the existing market structure and increase the likelihood that distribution is accelerating instead of a new expansion phase developing. Moreover, such a move would challenge the analyst’s bullish thesis and raise the probability of a more prolonged period of downside pressure.

XRP remains positioned between two critical levels that continue to define the broader market outlook. While EGRAG sees greater odds of a bullish resolution, the asset’s ability to reclaim $1.80 and defend $0.78 will ultimately determine whether the current structure evolves into a major expansion phase or transitions into a deeper bearish trend.

Also Read: XRP Likely to See Disturbing Sweep in June, Analyst Says its Already ‘Showing Signs’

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