Bitcoin Cycle: Analyst Reveals Stunning Reason Why Bull Run Isn’t Over Yet

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Bitcoin Cycle: Analyst Reveals Stunning Reason Why Bull Run Isn’t Over Yet

The cryptocurrency market often feels like a rollercoaster, with sharp corrections leading many to wonder if the good times are truly over. Recent dips in Bitcoin’s price have fueled this uncertainty, causing some investors to question the longevity of the current bullish trend. However, a prominent analyst offers a compelling counter-narrative, suggesting that the current Bitcoin cycle is far from finished. This insight could be crucial for anyone navigating the volatile world of digital assets.

Is the Current Bitcoin Cycle Truly Unbroken?

Despite the recent volatility that has gripped the market, the prevailing sentiment that the Bitcoin cycle has concluded might be premature. According to Axel Adler Jr., a respected contributor at CryptoQuant, the underlying data points to a different story. His analysis indicates that Bitcoin’s current market behavior aligns with a structural uptrend, rather than a cycle top.

Adler’s perspective offers a glimmer of hope and a logical framework for understanding Bitcoin’s resilience. He emphasizes the importance of key support levels, which often act as critical junctures for price action. Understanding these levels is fundamental to predicting future movements and making informed investment decisions.

Many investors closely monitor such analyses to gauge market health and potential future trajectories. It is vital to look beyond daily fluctuations and consider broader, long-term indicators that reveal the true state of the market. This approach helps to avoid panic selling and to capitalize on sustained growth.

Understanding Key Support: Why $107K Matters for the Bitcoin Cycle

A significant part of Adler’s argument hinges on Bitcoin’s performance on the monthly chart. He notes that BTC is currently trading around $110,700, which is comfortably above a crucial support level: the short-term holder realized price at $107,600. This metric is a powerful indicator, representing the average price at which short-term investors acquired their Bitcoin.

What does this mean for the Bitcoin cycle?

• Short-term holder realized price: This metric helps to identify the cost basis for investors who have held Bitcoin for less than 155 days. When the price stays above this level, it suggests that these newer market participants are generally in profit, reducing the likelihood of widespread selling pressure.
• Comparison to other holder groups: Adler highlights that the current price is significantly higher than the realized price for all holders ($52,800) and long-term holders ($35,600). This wide margin indicates robust profitability across different investor cohorts, strongly supporting the notion of a structural uptrend in the ongoing Bitcoin cycle.

The fact that Bitcoin maintains its position above these critical realized price levels provides a strong foundation for continued growth. It suggests that the market has absorbed recent selling and is ready to push higher, rather than entering a prolonged bearish phase. This resilience is a hallmark of a healthy and maturing asset class.

Decoding Market Sentiment: What NUPL Tells Us About This Bitcoin Cycle

Another powerful tool in Adler’s analysis is the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator. This metric helps assess the overall profitability of the Bitcoin market by comparing the unrealized profit of all coins to their unrealized loss. A higher NUPL value indicates greater market-wide profit.

Currently, the NUPL indicator stands at 0.53, placing it firmly in the profit zone. While this is a positive sign, Adler points out that it is at a lower level compared to previous market cycles. This observation is particularly insightful:

• Profit zone, but not overheated: Being in the profit zone means that, on average, Bitcoin holders are sitting on gains. However, the relatively lower NUPL value compared to past peaks suggests that the market is not yet experiencing the extreme euphoria or speculative frenzy often seen at cycle tops.
• Room for growth: This ‘cooler’ profit zone implies that there is still significant room for the market to expand before reaching potential exhaustion points. It suggests that the current Bitcoin cycle has more fuel to burn, offering further upside potential for investors.

This balanced view from the NUPL indicator provides a nuanced understanding of market sentiment. It counters the narrative of an imminent crash by showing that while profitable, the market isn’t excessively overbought, leaving room for continued price appreciation.

Navigating the Future: What’s Next for the Bitcoin Cycle?

Axel Adler Jr.’s conclusion is clear and provides actionable insight for investors: if Bitcoin’s price can successfully be maintained above the key support level of $107,000, the bullish trend is highly likely to continue. This threshold acts as a crucial barometer for the market’s immediate future, signaling whether the upward momentum will persist.

For investors, monitoring this specific price point becomes paramount. A sustained break below $107,000 could signal a shift in market dynamics, while holding firm above it reinforces the analyst’s optimistic outlook for the ongoing Bitcoin cycle. This provides a tangible metric to watch amidst the often-confusing daily price movements.

The confluence of strong realized price support and a healthy, yet not overheated, NUPL indicator paints a compelling picture. It suggests that while corrections are a natural part of any market, the foundational elements for a continued uptrend in the Bitcoin cycle remain firmly in place. This perspective encourages a long-term view, rather than reacting to short-term fear.

Conclusion: A Resilient Bitcoin Cycle

The latest analysis from CryptoQuant’s Axel Adler Jr. offers a powerful counter-argument to the idea that Bitcoin’s current bull run is over. By focusing on critical on-chain metrics like the short-term holder realized price and the NUPL indicator, he demonstrates that Bitcoin’s foundational support remains strong. The key takeaway is clear: as long as the $107,000 support level holds, the prevailing bullish trend of the Bitcoin cycle is poised to continue. This provides a robust framework for investors to confidently navigate the market, understanding that significant upside potential still exists.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

1. What is the “short-term holder realized price”?

The short-term holder realized price is an on-chain metric that calculates the average price at which Bitcoin was acquired by investors who have held their coins for less than 155 days. It helps identify the cost basis for newer market participants.

2. What does the NUPL indicator tell us about the market?

NUPL stands for Net Unrealized Profit/Loss. It assesses the overall profitability of the Bitcoin market by comparing the total unrealized profit to the total unrealized loss across all coins. A positive NUPL indicates that the market is, on average, in profit.

3. Why is the $107,000 level so important for Bitcoin?

According to the analysis, $107,000 represents the short-term holder realized price, acting as a crucial support level. If Bitcoin’s price remains above this point, it signals that newer investors are profitable, reducing selling pressure and supporting a continued bullish trend.

4. Is this Bitcoin cycle different from previous ones?

While the current NUPL is in the profit zone, it’s at a lower level compared to previous cycle peaks. This suggests the market might not be as overheated or euphoric as in past cycles, potentially indicating more room for sustained growth.

5. What should investors watch for next in the Bitcoin cycle?

Investors should closely monitor Bitcoin’s price action relative to the $107,000 support level. A sustained hold above this level would reinforce the bullish outlook, while a decisive break below it could signal a shift in market dynamics.

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To learn more about the latest Bitcoin cycle trends, explore our article on key developments shaping Bitcoin price action.

This post Bitcoin Cycle: Analyst Reveals Stunning Reason Why Bull Run Isn’t Over Yet first appeared on BitcoinWorld and is written by Editorial Team