Bitcoin : 490 million bets on a crash to 40,000 dollars, should we be alarmed?

The Bitcoin options market shows a clear signal: the 40,000 $ put has become the second largest bet before the February 27 expiration, with about 490 million dollars of notional. In other words, some traders are paying dearly for "catastrophe" insurance. Is this a prophecy? Not necessarily. It is often a hedging reflex when the market has just been shaken. Bitcoin currently drifts around 66,000–68,000 $, after a sharp decline from the October highs. In this setting, options look less like a vote on the future and more like a seatbelt fastened at the last moment.

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