Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin’s Value Depends on Money Supply, Not Interest Rates
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- Hayes says the quantity of money, not interest rates, determines Bitcoin price long-term.
- Three Iran war scenarios all end with central bank money printing benefiting Bitcoin.
- Hayes watches the MOVE Index crossing 130 as his signal that money printing has begun.
Arthur Hayes has barely traded this year. The BitMEX co-founder described the first quarter of 2026 as a “no-trade zone,” with his fund doing almost nothing beyond slowly building its Hyperliquid position.
The reason behind it is a specific conviction about what drives Bitcoin’s price and a view that the current environment has not yet produced the signal he is waiting for.
That signal is money printing. “I believe the quantity of money determines the price of Bitcoin, not its price. Bitcoin has no cash flows, so the discount rate derived from central bank policy rates is irrelevant to valuing the magic…
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