Bitcoin Price Analysis: Can BTC Sustain Its Latest Recovery?

Bitcoin (BTC) has rebounded this week after facing considerable selling pressure over the weekend. Despite the recovery, BTC remains down by almost 5% this week as it struggles to reclaim $85,000, registering a decline after reaching a day high of $84,456. 

The flagship cryptocurrency is trading just above $83,000, a marginal increase over the past 24 hours. Analysts are divided over BTC’s immediate price movement with some believing a drop below $80,000 is inevitable, while others predict a recovery and move past $90,000. 

Bitcoin (BTC) Could Slip Below $80,000 This Week 

Research firm 10x Research has predicted that Bitcoin could fall below $80,000 this week thanks to growing uncertainty around tariffs and rising inflation. The firm’s research report cited hotter-than-expected US core Personal Consumption Expenditures data that suggested inflation remains a concern. President Donald Trump’s inconsistent rhetoric about tariffs has further increased market uncertainty. 10x Research also cited the upcoming US ISM Manufacturing PMI as a potential trigger for further downside in the coming days. If the data is weaker than expected, it could intensify risk aversion among investors and impact the crypto market. Additionally, better-than-expected inflation data could delay any Federal Reserve intervention and delay a market recovery. 

“Tariff Shock and Hot Inflation Data Derail Bitcoin Rally The Bitcoin rebound over the past three weeks has faltered, as hotter-than-expected core PCE data signaled rising inflation—driven in part by Trump’s tariff implementation— which appears to be weighing on consumer sentiment.”

Strategy Continues Bitcoin Buying Spree 

Strategy (Previously MicroStrategy) has announced the purchase of 22,048 BTC for a staggering $1.9 billion. The purchase was financed with equity sales and a new issue of the company’s preferred stock. The latest purchase comes after the company purchased $600 million worth of BTC last week. Strategy is the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin with 528,185 BTC, according to an 8-K report released on Monday. Strategy funds its BTC purchase by issuing equity, debt, and preferred stock. The firm has been on a Bitcoin buying spree since October and has more than doubled its holdings since September 30. 

Strategy sold 3.6 million shares of common stock between March 24 and Sunday through ongoing at-the-market equity offerings, raising $1.2 billion. The company also issued 8.5 million shares of its new 10% Strife preferred stock at $85 each, raising $711 million. 

Bitcoin Could Replace US Dollar As Global Reserve Currency 

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink believes the US national debt could create a crisis, allowing Bitcoin to replace the US Dollar as the global reserve currency if investors see the asset as a safer alternative. Fink emphasized strong support for Bitcoin and other digital assets, calling them an extraordinary innovation. However, he stated that digital assets like Bitcoin could offset America’s economic advantage if investors view it as a safer bet than the US Dollar. According to Fink, while the US Dollar has been the world’s reserve currency for decades, its status could be threatened by a burgeoning national debt. Fink stated, 

“If the US doesn't get its debt under control, if deficits keep ballooning, America risks losing that position to digital assets like Bitcoin.”

Fink also discussed the importance of real-world asset tokenization, stating that it makes investing significantly more democratic. BlackRock is the largest issuer of tokenized real-world assets, with its BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity (BUIDL) fund nearing a staggering $2 billion. The asset manager also holds the largest crypto ETF, the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) ETF, which holds over $39 billion in assets under management (AUM). BlackRock has also launched the iShares Bitcoin ETP in Europe to expand its fund exposure in the region. 

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis 

While 10x Research believes BTC could drop below $80,000 this week, Fidelity analysts believe the flagship cryptocurrency is gearing up for the next leg of its acceleration phase. According to Zack Wainwright, analyst at Fidelity, BTC’s acceleration phases are characterized by “high volatility and high profit.” The analyst compared it with BTC’s price action in 2020 when it crossed $20,000. BTC’s year-to-date return has reported a decline of 11.4%, with the flagship cryptocurrency down almost 25% from its all-time high. However, Wainwright believes the recent post-acceleration phase performance matches BTC’s average drawdowns compared to previous market cycles. The analyst suggested BTC is still in an acceleration phase but is moving closer to the completion of the cycle. 

“The acceleration phase of 2010 - 2011, 2015, and 2017 reached their tops on day 244, 261, 280, respectively, suggesting a slightly more drawn-out phase each cycle.”

BTC slipped below $100,000 in February after the momentum and positivity following Trump’s election victory and inauguration dissipated. Markets are now wary and anxious thanks to volatility induced by Trump’s tariffs and fears the US economy could be heading into a recession. However, despite recent struggles, institutions have continued adding BTC to their reserves. The latest is Strategy, which announced the purchase of 22,048 BTC worth $1.92 billion at an average price of $86,969 per coin. Bitcoin miner MARA has also announced plans to sell up to $2 billion in stock to fund BTC acquisition. Japanese firm Metaplanet has also issued 2 billion yen ($13.3 million) in bonds to purchase Bitcoin while GameStop announced a $1.3 billion convertible notes offering, a part of which could be used to fund Bitcoin acquisition. 

While institutional investors have positive expectations from BTC, it is difficult to determine the impact of these purchases on the asset's price. According to Wainwright, a key metric to watch is the number of days in a rolling 60-day period when the asset hits a new all-time high. The analyst stated, 

“Bitcoin has typically experienced two major surges within previous Acceleration Phases, with the first instance of this cycle following the election. If a new all-time high is on the horizon, it will have a starting base near $110,000.”

BTC started the previous week on a bullish note, registering an increase of almost 3%, moving past the 20 and 200-day SMAs and settling at $86,116. The price surged to an intraday high of $88,839 on Monday as bullish sentiment intensified. However, it could not stay at this level and settled at $87,523, ultimately registering an increase of almost 2%. BTC lost momentum after reaching this level as it encountered volatility and selling pressure. As a result, the price registered a marginal decline on Tuesday. Sellers retained control on Wednesday as BTC fell below $87,000 after a marginal decline and settled at $86,942. BTC registered a marginal increase on Thursday to reclaim $87,000 and settle at $87,236.

Source: TradingView

However, BTC was back in the red on Friday, registering a substantial drop of over 3%, slipping below the 200-day SMA and settling at $84,422. Price action remained bearish over the weekend as BTC registered a fall of over 2% on Saturday, slipping below the 20-day SMA and settling at $82,704. A marginal decline on Sunday saw BTC settle at $82,404. BTC encountered volatility on Monday as buyers and sellers struggled to establish control. Buyers ultimately gained the upper hand as BTC registered a marginal increase and settled at $82,511. BTC has rallied during the ongoing session, with the price up over 3%. The flagship cryptocurrency has moved past the 20-day SMA and $85,000 and is currently trading at $85,300.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.