US Non-Farm Payrolls Reveal Fewer Jobs in February: Here’s How This Could Impact Bitcoin

The United States added less jobs than expected in February, potentially impacting the Federal Reserve's rate decision and Bitcoin price action. Particularly, the United States Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report for February emerged today. The data revealed a disappointing addition of just 151,000 jobs, falling short of the market's anticipation of 160,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%, slightly above the expected 4.0% and the previous month's figure of 4.0%. This underwhelming labor market performance could have implications for Federal Reserve policy and, by extension, Bitcoin's price trajectory.  Bitcoin Current Position Notably, Bitcoin has experienced downward pressure recently, driven by broader economic concerns. Tensions surrounding possible trade conflicts between the US and nations like China, Mexico, and Canada have unsettled markets.  The asset briefly climbed to $92,000 on March 6, fueled by optimism, but soon retreated below $90,000. This decline followed President Donald Trump's executive order on the Bitcoin reserve, which clarified that the reserve would not actively acquire Bitcoin unless funded through budget-neutral channels.  At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $89,500, reflecting a modest drop of 0.37% on the day. However, the latest jobs data introduces a new factor that could push Bitcoin back toward the $90,000 threshold in the near term. Federal Reserve's Response to Jobs Data For context, the Federal Reserve closely monitors NFP figures to gauge the health of the labor market, a major factor in its interest rate decisions.  February's weaker-than-expected job growth and rising unemployment suggest a cooling economy, which could prompt the Fed to adopt a more dovish stance.  Historically, the Fed has adjusted rates in response to labor market trends. For instance, in December 2024, the Fed implemented a 25-basis-point rate cut, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.25%–4.50%, marking its third reduction of the year.  This move aimed to bolster economic growth amid signs of slowing employment. Looking back further, the Fed raised rates aggressively in 2022 and early 2023 to combat inflation, peaking at 5.25%–5.50%, before pivoting to cuts as inflationary pressures eased. Bitcoin Could Leverage Rate Cuts The next Fed meeting, scheduled for March 18–19, 2025, will likely determine the immediate direction of monetary policy. Market participants currently expect the Fed to hold rates steady, given the solid but not overheated labor market conditions.  However, the subpar February NFP data might shift expectations. Notably, if subsequent reports confirm a weakening trend, the Fed could opt for a 25-basis-point cut as early as March or May.  Lower interest rates typically weaken the US dollar and reduce Treasury yields, creating a favorable environment for risk assets like Bitcoin. Investors often turn to cryptocurrencies during periods of monetary easing, anticipating increased liquidity and diminished returns on traditional investments. Bitcoin's price performance has historically correlated with Fed policy shifts. When the Fed cut rates in late 2024, Bitcoin rallied, climbing from $70,000 in November to $108,000 by December.  The prospect of another cut could trigger bullish momentum, especially if the dollar softens further. Conversely, if the Fed perceives the labor market as resilient enough to delay easing, Bitcoin might face prolonged consolidation below $90,000.