XRP ETF approval seen to unlock $5bn bonanza, but ‘people are severely underestimating’ demand, analyst says

Spot XRP exchange-traded funds could pull in over $5 billion in inflows within their first month of trading.

That’s according to analysts who made that prediction as the October deadline for the US Securities and Exchange Commission to make a decision on altcoin ETFs draws closer.

However, Nate Geraci, the co-founder of the ETF Institute and President of the ETF Store, said most people have missed how big the opportunity is.

“People are severely underestimating investor demand for spot XRP and [Solana] ETFs, he stated in a Monday post.

He didn’t say what estimates he referred to, only adding that people underestimated demand for both spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs before they were launched.

Geraci’s comments come as the SEC’s decision deadline on a smattering of altcoin ETF applications draws near.

The SEC is reviewing close to a dozen XRP ETF applications, which are part of more than 90 exchange-traded products awaiting approval.

Last week, about half of the XRP ETF fund hopefuls updated their filings, a move described as a “good sign” by both Geraci and Bloomberg Intelligence analyst James Seyffart.

On Polymarket, the chances of an approved XRP ETF have shot up 16% in the last 24 hours to 87%. Bloomberg’s ETF analysts pegged the chances of an approval at 95% in August.

Bullish inflow predictions

Earlier in the year, JPMorgan analysts forecasted up to $8 billion in inflows to XRP ETFs within the first year of trading.

Canary Capital CEO Steve McClurg is even more bullish. Last week, he predicted up to $5 billion in inflows to XRP ETFs within the first month. That still pales in comparison to Bitcoin ETFs, which drew almost $2 billion in only the first three trading days.

Still, analysts can look to existing XRP exchange-traded products to gauge the likely demand for an approved spot ETF.

In April, Teucrium, the agro-focused ETF issuer, launched a leveraged XRP ETF. That fund has hoovered up about $353 million in net assets, almost more than the combined total of Teucrium’s more traditional agro-based ETFs.

XRP traded at $2.81 on Monday, down almost 1% in the last 24 hours, in keeping with the rest of the cryptocurrency market. The price is down 23% since reaching a new all-time high on July 18.

That price slump came amid massive profit-taking as whales sold $6 billion worth of XRP within three weeks. The trend has reversed, according to market data from Santiment, as whales have bought about 350 million XRP coins worth $984 million in the last two weeks.

Osato Avan-Nomayo is our Nigeria-based DeFi correspondent. He covers DeFi and tech. Got a tip? Please contact him at osato@dlnews.com.