Is Arthur Hayes Right About $1M Bitcoin? Analyzing His Controversial Thesis

• Arthur Hayes warns US Treasuries risk losing top reserve asset status due to debt/tariffs
• Hayes predicts Gold, Bitcoin benefit as neutral assets if Treasury demand falls
• Bitcoin $1M target possible via forced Fed easing & potential USD/CNY turmoil: Hayes

Co-founder of BitMEX Arthur Hayes warns that U.S. Treasuries may no longer hold their position as the world’s top reserve asset. 

In a post on X, he says America’s expanding debt, coupled with changing trade policies and rising global tension, could push investors toward gold and Bitcoin.

Decades of Debt & Trade Shifts Set the Stage

Hayes points to the sharp rise in U.S. federal debt since the gold standard ended in 1971, using a St. Louis Fed chart showing an 85-fold increase. 

Hayes says this expansion reflects the credit needed to support the global economy as the U.S. dollar took center stage in trade and finance.

Related: The Unexpected Upside: Tariffs Depress Treasury Yields, Shine Light on Crypto

He noted that this debt-driven growth has produced uneven results. Some Americans gained wealth, while others saw few benefits. Hayes argues that this divide fueled political discontent, lea…

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