Bearish Clouds Over Ethena: $10M Sell-Off and Massive Unlocks Threaten Price

Ethena (ENA) is under heavy selling pressure after a $10.35 million token dump by Amber Group. The market maker offloaded a significant amount of ENA on Binance, rattling investors and fueling uncertainty. What makes this sell-off more alarming is that Amber Group acquired these tokens just two weeks ago at an average price of $0.3979.

Ethena’s quick exit reflects a lack of confidence in the token’s short-term potential, which intensifies bearish sentiment. ENA’s price has taken a hit, and buyers are cautious because of its increased volatility.

Upcoming Token Unlocks Pose Additional Risks

Beyond the Amber Group sell-off, Ethena is facing another major hurdle—massive token unlocks that could further increase selling pressure.

On March 5th, 2.06 billion ENA tokens (13.9% of the total supply) were unlocked, flooding the market with additional liquidity. This action has already weighed on ENA’s price, and the outlook poses a big challenge. The situation is expected to worsen in the coming weeks, with more token unlocks scheduled.

On April 2, another 94.19 million ENA tokens will enter circulation, followed by an even larger release of 171.85 million tokens on April 5. As supply expands rapidly, investors fear further price declines, making it crucial for ENA to hold key support levels to avoid a deeper downturn.

Technical Analysis: Can ENA Hold or Break Lower?

ENA currently trades at $0.3529, and has dropped  7.10% in the past 24 hours. Its market capitalization stands at $1.1 billion, and 24-hour trading volume has surged by 10.87% to $112.9 million, which translates to an increased market activity. 

However, technical indicators show a possible bearish future. The token is trading below all key exponential moving averages, which is a bad omen and a potential downtrend. Ethena currently sits at 56 Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 45.74, indicating a neutral market sentiment but leaning bearish.

The MACD analysis further supports this outlook, with multiple death crosses reinforcing downward momentum. While occasional golden crosses have triggered short-lived recoveries, the overall trend remains negative. If ENA holds above the crucial $0.3525 support, a rebound toward $0.3925 is possible. However, if this support level breaks, the token could experience further declines.

Despite the current struggles, mid-term projections suggest ENA could recover and reach $2.32 by the end of 2025, assuming market conditions stabilize. Long-term forecasts remain optimistic, with some analysts predicting a potential surge to $4.83 by 2030 and a possible high of $15.79 by 2040.

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