How prediction markets raise insider trading and credit risks

Prediction markets may be providing a way of turning opinions into financial products, but they may also pose financial risks and opportunities for insider trading.

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are growing, generating billions of dollars in volume. But some observers are concerned about the ethical problems and potential credit risks posed by major prediction betting platforms.

Last week, Polymarket saw a notional volume of over $1.2 billion, according to Dune Analytics. Media giant CNBC has entered into a partnership with prediction market Kalshi to integrate prediction data in its TV, digital and subscription platforms.

On the back of this success, Kalshi co-founder Tarek Mansour has mentioned creating “a tradable asset out of any difference in opinion,” stating that prediction markets could soon surpass the stock market in size.

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