Analyst Says Bitcoin Just Hit the Phase That Tripled Facebook’s User Base

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas argues that Bitcoin (BTC) has entered the same adoption phase that took Facebook from 1 billion to 3 billion users.

The comparison frames BTC’s loss of countercultural appeal as a sign of maturation, not decline, with spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) acting as the catalyst for mainstream entry.

ETF Expert Likens Bitcoin to Facebook’s “Uncool” Phase, Bullish?

Balchunas, Bloomberg Intelligence’s senior ETF analyst and co-host of the Trillions podcast, compares Bitcoin’s current moment to when older generations flooded Facebook.

“Bitcoin rn feels like when your parents joined Facebook. On one hand, it’s not as ‘cool’ anymore because of the Boomers, but on the other hand, Facebook’s user base grew from like 1 billion to 3 billion people since the coolness factor went away, so..,” wrote Balchunas.

Follow us on X to get the latest news as it happens

Facebook hit 1 billion monthly active users in 2012, according to Meta data. By the end of 2023, that figure reached 3.07 billion.

Year-over-year growth rates collapsed below 10% after 2013, yet the absolute user base nearly tripled during that “boring” stretch.

Statista chart showing Facebook MAU growth from 2011 to 2023 alongside declining YoY growth rates, Source: Statista

The Numbers Behind the Analogy

Balchunas also asked for hard data on Bitcoin holder growth over 3, 5, and 10 years. He noted that BlackRock reported roughly 1 million people bought its iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) in the fund’s first year alone.

Current estimates place the number of global Bitcoin holders at approximately 106 million, up from a range of 30 to 50 million in 2021.

IBIT now holds 782,180 BTC, representing about 3.9% of the total supply.

BlackRock IBIT BTC Holdings. Source: BlackRock

Meanwhile, some macro analysts note that no-coiners keep declaring Bitcoin dead, yet really, it’s just getting started.

When an asset loses its identity-driven appeal and attracts broad, passive capital, that transition often marks the start of its largest growth phase, not the end.

Can Bitcoin’s holder base follow Facebook’s trajectory from 1 billion toward 3 billion? The directional trend since ETF approval points in that direction.

Subscribe to our YouTube channel to watch leaders and journalists provide expert insights