Bitcoin Rockets to $79K: Local Top or Just Getting Started?

The Bitcoin price surged to $79K on Friday, continuing the frantic pump that has been experienced across the crypto market. So far this mad surge has gained nearly 24%, or the equivalent of $15,000 since Wednesday. Has a local top been reached now, or can there still be one last spike over $80K?

Massive Bitcoin spike, but now very overbought

Source: TradingView

The 4-hour chart for the $BTC price shows us that the top is probably now in. That’s not to say that there couldn’t be yet another spike that takes the price into the lower $80K area, but in the main the price is now extremely overbought.

On this low time frame it can be seen that the Stochastic RSI indicators are right at the top, and in an even more telling manner, the RSI indicator is approaching the mid-90s. Seldom does the price get this overbought.

It might be expected that this towering collection of green candles does start to be added to by some red candles in the near future. How far down could the price correct? $69K lines up with the 0.618 Fibonacci level, but given the extreme bullishness for Bitcoin right now, the most shallow of the Fibonacci levels is at $75,550. A bounce from here would certainly continue the bullish bias to the upside.

Possible correction back to $69K?

Source: TradingView

The daily chart illustrates some important factors to consider. For one, the $BTC price is now only a stone’s throw away from a crucial level. $82,750 is the level of the last big high, made at the top of the huge bear flag depicted in purple. If the price can achieve a higher high than this, it really breaks the back of the bear market trend. It would then just be a case of waiting for the price to get above $98K in order to officially confirm the new bull market.

It can be observed how the $BTC price hit the 200-day SMA when it made that last big high. If one follows this moving average down, it can be seen that the price ripped through it at the level of around $69K. As already mentioned, $69K corresponds with the 0.618 Fibonacci. Coming back to confirm the 200-day SMA as support could be another magnet that pulls the price back to this level.

Finally, if one looks at the bottom of the chart, the RSI indicator line is above 85.00. While not as overbought as in the lower time frames, the daily carries a lot more weight when judging overbought conditions. It is signalling very overbought, but there still could be a little bit more to go before an extremely overbought condition is signalled. 

Possible rejection at major RSI descending trendline?

Source: TradingView

Just look at the current green weekly candle erupting off of the bull market trendline. Seldom does one see such a tall green candle. In fact, in the chart above, which includes most of the previous bull market and all the bear market, there is only one weekly candle that comes close to rivalling it, and that is the first green candle that surges into the beginning of the 8-month bull flag back in 2024. 

It can be seen that the support structures at the bottom of this bear market held firm. These were the bull market trendline, and the 200-week SMA. Both were breached here and there, but never was a weekly candle allowed to close below either. 

In yesterday’s article, a trendline was taken from a peak in the RSI that occurred in July 2025. However, looking back further, it can be seen that this trendline actually began all the way back in March 2024, as that aforementioned 8-month bull flag was just getting started. 

The issue is that the current position of the RSI indicator is just touching that trendline now. Given the overbought nature of the $BTC price, as mentioned earlier in this article, a rejection of the trendline is probably going to take place. Will this be a big rejection that coincides with a sharp fall in price, or could this be another tap on that trendline that weakens it ready for a breakout during the next upward surge?

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.