BTC News: Is The Bitcoin Price Recession Rally a Myth? 10x Research

The Bitcoin market maintains attractive prices above $80,000, but different analysts fail to see a clear path ahead. 10x Research has stated that positive expectations about Bitcoin behaviour during potential economic downturns might not show the same level of support. The macroeconomic foundation powering the Bitcoin price rise will probably not progress to traders’ expected fast speed or strong results, according to 10x Research head Markus Thielen.

Early Economic Recession Phases Could Pressure Bitcoin Price

The traditional belief among Bitcoin investors suggests that periods of economic recession offer favourable conditions for price increases. This is due to monetary policy stimulus and rate reduction, which boost demand for decentralised assets. According to Thielen, some investors might have an inaccurate viewpoint about this short-term development.

Studies indicate that economic recession phases commonly result in tighter finances and increased risk aversion, leading to market sell-offs. The market categorizes Bitcoin as an elevated-risk financial instrument, so it could experience temporary price declines while a potential economic recovery-driven positive trend develops. Thielen observes that credit spreads witness wider distribution, a recession indicator because this pattern reveals intensifying economic pressure. Recessions combined with these market developments might cause Bitcoin to fail at sustaining its current price values.

Image 1- provided by Markus Thielen, published on X on April 11, 2025

The available historical records indicate caution. When the U.S. Federal Reserve initiates its first interest rate decrease, people usually take this action as a sign that economic weakness has started to unfold. When confirmation arises, investors sell their positions across speculative assets, including cryptocurrencies, before new long-term profits materialize.

Market Timing and Rate Cut Expectations

Markets actively analyze future changes in interest rates, which drive the core discussion within this sector. The rise of 2.8% in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) during March 2025 stimulated additional demands for the Federal Reserve to conduct rate cuts. White House crypto policy advisor David Sacks has joined other authorities demanding an immediate rate cut.

Time for a rate cut. https://t.co/XVbCQ8rfG8

— David Sacks (@DavidSacks) April 10, 2025

According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, markets anticipate the Federal Reserve will maintain current rates in its upcoming meeting at a probability level of 67.8%. If the forecasted Federal Reserve decisions hold, market expectations regarding crypto sector performance will need adjustment, potentially reducing short-term market momentum.

Image 2-  CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, published on April 11, 2025

The cryptocurrency value remains susceptible to macroeconomic indicators as it sits within an $80,620 price range. A rate cut would benefit Bitcoin historically, yet its first effect might be negative because market participants could interpret it as evidence of worse economic conditions instead of support for the economy.

Global currency exchange rates have weakened to be taken into account as a key factor. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) lost 2.93% of its value throughout the past week as it settled at 99.973.

Image 3-  The U.S. Dollar Index, Provided by Emmaculate, Published on TradingView on April 11, 2025

According to Thielen, transforming a weak dollar into Bitcoin potential requires time to occur. Currency devaluations begin by creating fear among investors before generating a rising effect on Bitcoin in the market.

Bitcoin Long-Term Outlook Remains Bullish but Cautious

The basic appeal of Bitcoin for the future remains solid, while short-term challenges create risks. Research analysts now agree that Bitcoin is an effective shield for fiat currency devaluation and systemic financial crises. In his perspective, BlackRock’s digital asset expert Robbie Mitchnick highlights that Bitcoin’s protected quantity and decentralized properties will make it succeed long-term when organizations lose faith in regular monetary systems.

10x Research encourages market traders to exercise caution in their short-term expectations. Bitcoin will face market uncertainty before the recession-based bullish momentum takes hold. With its developing economic indicators, the present market scenario tests the endurance of investors’ confidence in an uninterrupted price increase.

Bitcoin will likely surge in an extended economic slowdown, but its path toward this goal will probably follow a series of challenging stages. Improving trade activities could face errors because investors might not understand the market fluctuations related to worldwide economic changes. 

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