Bitcoin Supply in Profit Nears a Historical Bear-to-Bull Transition Zone

More than 71% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply was in unrealized profit as of Sept. 8, putting the market close to the 74.7% historical mean cited by Bitfinex analysts as a level associated with bear-to-bull transitions. But the number becomes less decisive on closer inspection: Glassnode’s holder-cohort data for Sept. 6 implied a combined 75.956% of supply was already in profit.

That is not simply a disagreement over a marginal reading. It changes the interpretation of the widely watched threshold. Under one measure, Bitcoin is still approaching the line; under another, it has moved beyond it. The more defensible conclusion is that supply profitability has reached a historically important transition area, rather than that a single percentage has delivered an unqualified cycle verdict.

The remaining test is whether profitable supply can stay profitable as holders sell into price strength. Glassnode’s prior cycle work placed that distinction at the center of the signal: an initial rebound is not the same thing as sustained profitability above the level associated with a genuine bull-market transition.

The 74.7% transition level is already a measurement zone, not a trigger

The Block reported that Bitfinex analysts saw more than 71% of circulating Bitcoin supply in unrealized profit and identified 74.7% as the historical mean. Moves above that mean have typically coincided with transitions from bear to bull markets, according to the report.

Yet Glassnode Studio’s Sept. 6 breakdown showed 64.335% of supply held by long-term holders in profit and 11.621% held by short-term holders in profit. Added together, those cohorts imply approximately 75.956% of supply in profit under that methodology. The arithmetic is straightforward, but the comparison is not necessarily like-for-like: the figures come from different providers and definitions.

That methodological difference is the key constraint on any threshold-based reading. A historical average such as 74.7% can be useful as a reference point, especially when profitability has climbed toward it from lower levels. It is less useful when presented as a precise switch that turns bullish at one reading and remains bearish just below it.

The two measures still point in the same broad direction. Both put a large majority of circulating supply in unrealized profit, a materially different market condition from one in which most holders remain underwater. But they do not establish that Bitcoin has cleared the transition in the same way or at the same time.

Glassnode’s test is sustained profitability above 75%, not the first rebound

Glassnode’s March cycle analysis offers a stricter framework than treating proximity to a historical mean as confirmation. It identified approximately 60% supply in profit as a historical first-bounce level, while arguing that a sustained move above roughly 75% was needed to confirm a genuine bull-market transition.

The distinction matters because a recovery can restore profitability to many coins without changing the market’s larger cycle character. As price rises, coins acquired at lower levels move back into profit. That can improve the aggregate supply-in-profit reading quickly, even if the new profit pool becomes a source of selling rather than the foundation of continued expansion.

Glassnode’s framework therefore makes duration part of the evidence. The question is not merely whether the metric prints around or above 75% on a given day. It is whether Bitcoin can hold that broad profitability state as the holders who have returned to profit decide whether to retain their coins or realize gains.

This also puts the difference between the Bitfinex-linked reading and Glassnode’s cohort calculation in better perspective. The 71%-plus figure and the approximately 75.956% cohort sum can coexist as indicators of the same transition area without requiring a declaration that the cycle has already been settled. One is below the cited historical mean; the other is above Glassnode’s approximate confirmation line. Neither removes the need for persistence.

Short-term holders are realizing profits near $74,000

The obstacle to sustained profitability is visible in the behavior of shorter-duration holders. In its March analysis, Glassnode said short-term-holder realized profit reached $18.4 million per hour near $74,000, indicating meaningful sell pressure into strength.

That figure describes a market mechanism rather than a contradiction in the data. A rising supply-in-profit measure means more holders have an economic incentive to sell at a gain. Some may continue holding, but others can distribute into the same price strength that is lifting the profitability statistic. The metric can therefore improve while the market encounters resistance.

Glassnode explicitly warned that rejection near the relevant profitability levels would reinforce a bear-market recovery narrative. The warning does not mean such a rejection is inevitable. It means the apparent bullish threshold is not a standalone confirmation signal, because the supply that has returned to profit must also be absorbed if price is to sustain the advance.

Short-term-holder activity is especially relevant to that process. These holders are, by definition, a distinct cohort from long-term holders in Glassnode’s supply-profitability breakdown. Their realized gains near $74,000 show that the transition zone is also a point at which supply can come back to market.

Bitcoin: Supply Profitability State chart showing percent supply in profit, statistical bands, Bitcoin price, and historical risk zones. — Source: Glassnode

The $72,000–$82,000 low-accumulation range is the execution test

Price structure gives the profitability debate a practical boundary. Glassnode said Bitcoin had previously cleared a dense on-chain accumulation cluster between $59,000 and $72,000, then entered a relatively thinly accumulated zone from $72,000 to $82,000. It identified that upper range as the likely near-term trading range and resistance area.

The significance of a thinly accumulated zone is not that it dictates an outcome. Rather, it locates where the market must contend with the selling behavior described by the realized-profit data. Bitcoin’s ability to trade through the range would have to coexist with holders taking gains; a failure to do so would fit the caution embedded in Glassnode’s bear-market-recovery scenario.

This is why supply in profit should be read alongside price levels rather than in isolation. A high share of coins in profit can reflect a healthier position than a broad underwater supply base. It can also increase the pool of potential sellers precisely as Bitcoin reaches an area Glassnode characterized as resistance.

The $72,000–$82,000 band consequently serves as an execution test for the broader transition thesis. A percentage threshold describes the distribution of unrealized gains across supply. The range identifies where those gains may be tested in trading.

Institutional cycle framing had still labeled the market an accumulation phase

Coinbase Institutional’s Q2 2026 report provides a separate reminder that supply profitability is designed to distinguish accumulation from expansion, not merely to celebrate a recovery. Its framework plots supply profitability against plus-or-minus one-standard-deviation bands, with the lower band representing an accumulation zone.

The report’s assessment of the first quarter of 2026 still characterized Bitcoin as being in that accumulation zone rather than in a confirmed bull phase. That earlier classification does not conflict with later readings showing profitability near or above transition levels. It underscores how the same metric can change meaning as it moves through a cycle and why a movement out of accumulation requires more than a single observation.

Glassnode’s approximate 60% first-bounce precedent and its roughly 75% sustained-confirmation level describe the same progression in a different form. Early recovery can lift supply profitability out of depressed conditions. A durable bull transition requires the market to preserve the higher profitability regime while facing the distribution incentives that the recovery itself creates.

For now, the relevant evidence is concentrated rather than conclusive: Bitfinex’s cited reading remains above 71% and near its 74.7% historical mean; Glassnode’s cohort sum is about 75.956%; and Glassnode’s earlier analysis placed resistance in the $72,000–$82,000 zone after short-term holders realized $18.4 million per hour in profits near $74,000.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.