Bitcoin to only hit $120,000 in 2025? Why Galaxy Digital dropped its price target

6M ago•

bullish:

bearish:

Galaxy Digital is cutting its year-end 2025 Bitcoin price target from $185,000 to $120,000, marking a sharp revision amid what it calls a structural change.

Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, said in an investor note shared with DL News that Bitcoin has entered a new “maturity era” and that the “days of 1,000x, 100x, or even possibly 10x gains” are over.

The new call comes as Bitcoin’s price bounced from $99,000 on Tuesday evening, the lowest level since May, to over $103,000 on Thursday morning.

On Wednesday, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded $137 million in selling pressure, bringing the total outflows to $890 million so far in November, the worst month since February, according to DefiLlama data.

Even so, Thorn says not to worry.

“Bitcoin has matured,” he wrote. “It now behaves more like gold or high-beta equities — less explosive, but more stable and policy-sensitive.”

Competition

Bitcoin’s cooling momentum owes partly to a redirection of institutional capital toward artificial intelligence-infrastructure, hyperscalers, gold, and the “Magnificent 7” US technology stocks, according to Thorn.

Crypto started the year as the hottest trade, but in a liquidity-rich environment, “attention is finite,” Galaxy wrote. While crypto has enjoyed huge windfalls in 2025, AI was the hot trade of the year, Thorn said.

“The AI build-out, data-centre arms race, and hyperscaler infrastructure trades have attracted unprecedented capital,” Thorn wrote.

While Bitcoin’s scarcity remains its defining feature, the note said that investors have found more tangible short-term returns in sectors like data centres and chip manufacturers, leaving digital assets sidelined.

Redistribution

The report argues that the selling after October 10 reflects redistribution, not weakness.

According to Galaxy, more than 470,000 Bitcoin held for over five years, worth some $50 billion, changed hands in 2025, the second-largest annual transfer in Bitcoin’s history.

“Coins once held by ideological early adopters are now being sold into a liquid market that can finally handle their absorption,” Thorn said. “This is less a signal of capitulation and more a mark of institutionalisation.”

Galaxy facilitated one of the year’s largest single transfers — a $9 billion sale of a legacy whale’s assets — which Thorn described as part of a broader shift toward passive ETF ownership and “sticky” long-term holders.

Still, the October 10 crash, which erased roughly $78 billion in open interest across crypto futures, “materially damaged” market liquidity and confidence.

Futures markets remain fragile, with open interest still well below pre-crash levels, according to the report.

“Still, we think nearing prior all-time highs before year-end is a reasonable target for short-term bulls.”