Bitcoin Will Never Close Below $80,000 Again—Analyst Explains

Bitcoin has experienced one of its sharpest capitulation events since late 2022, with prices dropping to levels that have shaken investor confidence. Despite the bearish sentiment prevailing in cryptocurrency markets, a prominent analyst has presented compelling evidence suggesting that the worst may be over for the leading digital asset.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at around $88,928, suggesting a 1.55% increase in the last 24 hours.

Bitcoin price chart, Source: CoinMarketCap

Market analyst Astronomer has assigned a 91% probability that Bitcoin will avoid closing below current weekly lows. This projection is based on historical capitulation patterns that have reliably signaled major reversals throughout Bitcoin's trading history.

Historical Patterns Point to Reversal

The analysis centers on a capitulation-volume model that examines weekly candle formations. This methodology identifies significant market bottoms by tracking three consecutive high-volume red candles that precede major price reversals.

The model has documented 11 historical instances where this specific pattern emerged. The results show remarkable consistency across different market cycles. Two cases produced rallies of approximately 35% before broader downtrends resumed. Eight instances marked the beginning of sustained upward movements that eventually led to new all-time highs.

Only one occurrence resulted in continued downside pressure, making it a statistical anomaly rather than the norm. Based on these historical precedents, the analyst forecasts a 91% probability of Bitcoin reaching $118,000 from current price levels. The likelihood of hitting $112,000 stands at 99%, while the broader bull market continuation carries a 75% probability.

Sentiment Creates Dangerous Trap

Astronomer emphasized that current market sentiment represents the primary risk for investors. The widespread calls to wait for trend confirmation or accept the bull cycle's conclusion are emerging at precisely the wrong moment.

This cautious crowd behavior typically manifests near market bottoms rather than tops. Investors who sell at these levels or delay entry while waiting for clearer signals often find themselves forced to chase prices at significantly higher levels.

The analyst noted that fear-driven decisions align with majority behavior, which historically underperforms when compared to contrarian positioning during inflection points. Markets reward participants who act against prevailing sentiment when data support a position.

Additional evidence comes from the Bitcoin network's value-to-transaction ratio, which has declined to -1.6. This metric compares Bitcoin's market capitalization to its transaction volume, providing insight into relative valuation.

Readings at these levels have historically indicated market undervaluation, creating opportunities for short-term mean-reversion trades. The indicator suggests Bitcoin's price has disconnected from its fundamental network activity in a way that favors buyers.

However, crypto trader Darkfost issued a cautionary note about employing leverage in the current environment. While the technical setup may favor upside, volatility remains elevated and could produce sharp counter-trend moves that liquidate overleveraged positions.