Arthur Hayes Predicts Tariffs Could Trigger Major Bitcoin Rally

Highlights:

• Trump’s new tariffs spark global turmoil, but Hayes sees Bitcoin benefiting long term.
• Hayes predicts tariffs will weaken the USD and boost Bitcoin demand from China.
• Hayes suggests Fed’s potential interest rate cuts could trigger a Bitcoin price rally.

The crypto market saw major turmoil this week after Trump introduced new reciprocal tariffs. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes shared on April 3 that global imbalances might be fixed through money printing, which could support Bitcoin. He noted that while many feel nervous, he personally supports tariffs. Hayes said the tariffs might cause short-term pain but could benefit Bitcoin in the long run.

Some of y'all are running scurred, but I LOVE TARIFFS, some chart porn to understand why.

Global imbalances will be corrected, and the pain papered over with printed money, which is good for $BTC. pic.twitter.com/jc5eZ2VIEa

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) April 4, 2025

Hayes believes the pressure on traditional markets might trigger a strong rally for Bitcoin. The Trump administration imposed a 10% tariff on all countries starting April 5, with some facing higher rates. He declared April 2 as “Liberation Day” in America after signing an Executive Order introducing reciprocal tariffs globally. Following the tariffs, April 3 saw the Nasdaq 100 experience its biggest single-day point loss in history.

Hayes Predicts Tariffs Could Weaken Dollar

BitMEX co-founder also predicts that these tariffs might weaken the U.S. dollar as international investors sell off U.S. assets and repatriate funds. Additionally, he notes that significant tariffs on China could lead to a depreciation of the Chinese yuan, prompting Chinese investors to seek alternative assets like Bitcoin. ​

Hayes said the Federal Reserve (Fed) needs to make things easier with money. He noticed the two-year treasury yield dropped after Trump announced tariffs. He explained that the market shows the Fed might lower interest rates soon and use a method called QE (Quantitative Easing) to help improve the economy. “The market is telling us the Fed will be cutting soon and possibly restarting QE to counter -ve economic impact. Be patient, be nimble, be liquid,” Hayes wrote.

We need Fed easing, the 2yr treasury yield dumped after Tariff annc because the market is telling us the Fed will be cutting soon and possibly restarting QE to counter -ve economic impact. pic.twitter.com/081kiGf9Jk

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) April 4, 2025

Arthur Hayes wrote in a blog on Tuesday that Bitcoin prices are influenced by technology and the amount of money in the system. 

He stated:

“The technology works, and there aren’t any major changes, good or bad, occurring in the near future. Therefore, Bitcoin trades solely based on the market expectation for the future supply of fiat.”

Meanwhile, Jeff Park, head of Alpha Strategies at Bitwise Invest, has consistently argued that Trump’s tariffs will eventually benefit Bitcoin. On February 3, he predicted that in a world of a weaker dollar and lower US interest rates, risk assets in the US, including Bitcoin, would surge beyond expectations. He advised to “bookmark this” and revisit it as the financial situation unfolds, suggesting that Bitcoin could see significant gains as the financial war progresses.

This is the only thing you need to read about tariffs to understand Bitcoin for 2025. This is undoubtedly my highest conviction macro trade for the year: Plaza Accord 2.0 is coming.

Bookmark this and revisit as the financial war unravels sending Bitcoin violently higher. pic.twitter.com/WxMB36Yv8o

— Jeff Park (@dgt10011) February 2, 2025

Bitcoin Holders Move Coins, Indicating Potential Market Shift

Bitcoin has stayed above the $82,000 support, but on-chain data shows long-term investors are losing patience. Analyst Ali Martinez noted a potential shift in market dynamics, with over 1,058 BTC moved by long-term holders on Wednesday. The return of older coins to circulation indicates profit-taking, which could increase selling pressure in the market.

Long-term holders moved over 1,058 #Bitcoin $BTC yesterday! Signs of profit-taking as older coins return to the market. pic.twitter.com/WdbuGVITXa

— Ali (@ali_charts) April 4, 2025