Will There be a Moonvember for Bitcoin? When?

Bitcoin kicked off November with investors anticipating better performance than in October. The tenth month failed to yield the expected result; the asset lost over 4%.

BTC is off to a rocky start as it sees a spill over from the dominant trend during the previous 31-day period. It is unsurprising, given that several analyses had warned about this outcome.

One such is a recent outlook that evaluated price action on two timeframes: the 1-week and 1-day. Both scales concluded that the asset is heading for a bearish start to the new month, with the 1-day chart revealing several bearish indicators.

Nonetheless, the analysis noted that the price action in the first week of November depended on how BTC ended the last week of October. It cited the moving average convergence divergence as one reason for its conclusion, stating that the indicator printed sell signals at the time. While reviewing the timing of a recovery, the article stated that RSI may rebound to 37. 

A closer look at the latter statement reveals that the relative strength index has recently slipped below the mark but is currently experiencing a slight increase.

As predicted, BTC had a rocky start to the week and month, dropping by over 3% on Monday. It also retraced from $107,260 to $98,900 during the previous intraday session, registering losses of nearly 5%. 

Nonetheless, the apex coin is off to a stronger start on Wednesday. It rebounded off the previous day’s low and is trading at $102k. 

Is The Bottom In for Bitcoin?

There are several reasons to conclude that the bottom is in. The highlighted outlook noted RSI rebound around 37. The metric slipped below the mark but halted its downtrend at 32. Another reason for such a conclusion is that BTC closed its CME gap between $113k and $112k. It is also worth noting that the asset rebounding at its previous low may foster such convictions.

While the highlighted reasons appear solid, there are flaws in them. BTC halting its decline at the previous day’s low may be a slight pullback from the downtrend, rather than the end of it. 

Regarding RSI, it stopped its recent decline at a level with no significant history of rebounds. The last time it had a solid halt to a downtrend at 32 was in March, and prices retraced afterward. 

The CME gap raises the utmost concern. While the asset filled the $112k/$113k gap, it exposed another critical gap. The image above shows that the apex coin ended Apr 22 at $91,970 and opened the next day at $93,915. Although the coin retraced, it failed to fill it.

All three factors suggest that BTC may retrace further. However, they also indicate a possible pullback in the short term.

What Next?

Based on the readings on the 1-day chart, Bitcoin is currently trading below the bollinger bands. It broke the indicator on Tuesday and is yet to recover. However, prices appear slightly better than the previous day. The asset also tested the lower but failed to flip it.

Previous price movements suggest that the apex coin will experience further increases, resulting in trading above the lower line. The assertion also coincides with the prevalent trend across the market on weekdays. Following Tuesday’s plunge, recovery may begin the day after.

Nonetheless, BTC slipped to June’s low during the previous intraday session. However, it rebounded, indicating significant demand concentration. If the bulls continue to accumulate, the asset may pull back even more. The bollinger bands suggest a possible retest of its SMA above $108k. 

Aside from the charts, liquidations in the derivatives market over the last 24 hours exceeded $2 billion. Liquidated longs accounted for most of the losses as they reached $1.6 billion.  Moreover, traders lost the most on BTC, with rekt capital exceeding $623 million. 

Investors appear more optimistic about price action on Wednesday, as they have been opening long positions since the day started. Compared to the previous day’s 48% long and 52% short, the ratio improved by 1%, and the bulls are edging on the 4-hour scale.

All highlighted data points to further increases in the coming hours.

Will Bitcoin Start Moonvember Now?

While recent data suggest a recovery, other information indicates otherwise. One such is the highlighted CME gap. A closer look at the chart indicates that the gap happened on a weekday, which is rare. However, the apex coin failed to fill it as it surged after creating it.

A previous analysis noted that a group of long-term investors was responsible for 50% of the selling pressure experienced since July, spending an average of about $648 million daily. Due to this group, Bitcoin has struggled to gain momentum, as their consistent selling has effectively capped further upside.

Recent price movements indicate additional zones where these holders resumed selling following each rebound. The article concluded that they may continue this trend since their cost basis ranges between $70,000 and $96,000, keeping them in profit as long as the asset trades above that range.

With the CB of these sellers in mind, a slip to $96k is almost inevitable. A slip to this mark shows its proximity to the CME gap. It means that the CME gap will get filled following the drop to the cost basis.

Moonvember may be ruled out as the focus will be on recovery. However, fundamentals hint at a small chance of a massive surge.

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