Trump And Tariffs: Three Major Errors In His Calculations

Donald Trump caused an economic shockwave by announcing significant tariffs targeting nearly all countries in the world. The figures presented by the White House are the subject of in-depth analyses by experts and raise questions among the United States’ trading partners.

Figures Largely Exaggerated Compared to Reality

The American president presented on April 2 his plan referred to as a “economic liberation“, which imposes at least 10% tariffs on all products imported into the United States.

During an official presentation, the Trump administration justified these measures with tables indicating that American products would be taxed at 67% in China, 90% in Vietnam, and 39% in the European Union.

According to several experts in international trade, these rates differ significantly from commonly documented tariffs.

For the European Union, for example, data from the European Commission and the World Trade Organization (WTO) establish that the average tariff rate with the United States is below 5%.

Even in the automobile sector, often cited as an example, where the EU applies a 10% duty on American vehicles, the gap remains significant compared to the 39% figure mentioned by the president.

These notable differences between the presented statistics and conventional data raise questions about the methodology employed.

A Calculation Methodology That Encompasses Much More Than Tariffs

How can these statistical discrepancies be explained? The American administration has provided clarifications on its assessment method.

According to the explanations from the White House, their approach does not limit itself to traditional tariffs but incorporates what Donald Trump designates as “other forms of cheating”.

This methodology takes into account factors that the administration considers currency manipulation, along with various environmental standards imposed by some countries.

For example, the European ban on importing chlorine-washed American chicken for many years is considered a trade barrier in these calculations. This method significantly broadens the scope of counted elements, explaining these abnormally high rates.

Trump’s Calculation Methods Questioned by Economists

In light of these figures, several economists express reservations about the methodological validity of the presented calculations.

According to an economics professor at Columbia University cited by several media outlets, the percentages put forward by the Trump administration would correspond to a simplified mathematical formula: the trade deficit divided by American imports for each affected country.

According to this expert, this method does not reflect the tariffs actually applied and deviates from the usual standards for assessing trade barriers.

Analysts particularly highlight the case of Heard and McDonald Islands, an uninhabited archipelago near Antarctica, which is among the 185 territories targeted by the new tariffs.

This inclusion raises questions about the rigor of the established lists, as this territory generates no economic activity.

These tariff measures raise concerns in financial markets, with some analysts seeing a risk of recession. While the Trump administration mentions a “Liberation Day”, many economists fear the emergence of a cycle of trade retaliations with global repercussions.