Polymarket Bets On Solana Price – $60 First or $140? Neither Likely

Solana has broken out on the back of improving broader market conditions, pushing the altcoin to levels not seen in recent weeks. The breakout has generated renewed optimism among SOL holders. 

However, the critical question now centers on sustainability — whether the underlying fundamentals can support this move or whether the rally is built on fragile momentum.

Solana May Not Fulfill Expectations

The Network Value to Transactions Ratio is flashing a warning signal for Solana. The NVT spike indicates that the network value is rising faster than actual transaction volume can justify. This divergence between price and on-chain utility has historically preceded price reversals as speculative hype outpaces genuine network activity.

When NVT ratios spike without corresponding transaction growth, the rally typically lacks the fundamental backbone needed to sustain itself. Once the hype subsides and transaction volume fails to catch up, the inflated network value corrects downward. 

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

Solana NVT Ratio. Source: Glassnode

Exchange net position change data shows that SOL inflows into trading platforms have not fully reversed. Continued exchange inflows represent ongoing selling behavior, as holders move tokens back onto platforms to offload positions. This persistent trend undermines the conviction behind the current breakout attempt.

The pace of these inflows has slowed over recent days, offering a cautiously constructive signal. However, the underlying sentiment driving exchange deposits has not meaningfully changed. Until SOL outflows from exchanges begin consistently dominating, the sell-side pressure will continue acting as a ceiling on any sustained price advance.

Solana Exchange Net Position Change. Source: Glassnode

Bets On Where Solana Could Land May Fail

Polymarket users are actively betting on whether Solana reaches $60 or $140 first, with a December 31, 2026, deadline. In the near term, neither outcome appears imminent given the current price positioning around $93. The market’s short-term trajectory suggests SOL may remain range-bound below $100 for the foreseeable future.

The uncertainty is visibly shifting within the Polymarket community. The probability of SOL dropping to $60 first has fallen from 70% to 59% over just three days, reflecting growing uncertainty about the bearish case. Regardless, for now, SOL may not see either case.

Solana Price Direction Bet. Source: Polymarket

SOL Price Breakout May Fail

Solana is trading at $94, holding above the $92 support level after breaking out of a megaphone pattern projecting a 12% rally to target $103. The breakout above $92 is technically encouraging but requires follow-through. A breach of $100 is necessary to validate the pattern and open the path toward $103 or $105.

The likelihood of that $100 breach remains low given persistent exchange inflows and elevated NVT readings. SOL could slide back below $92 in the coming sessions if selling pressure resurfaces. The breakout risks failing without stronger fundamental backing.

Solana Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

Halting exchange inflows and strengthening broader market conditions represent the only credible path to invalidating the bearish outlook. A sustained push past $100 would validate SOL’s megaphone breakout and shift momentum decisively in favor of bulls.