Why Galaxy Digital Lowers Bitcoin Price Forecast to $120,000 for End of 2025

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This article was first published on The Bit Journal.

Investment firm Galaxy Digital has updated its Bitcoin price forecast for the end of 2025; lowering its target to $120,000 from prior estimates.

The firm says holding the $100,000 level is crucial to keep the bull trend intact. This comes amid institutional flows, whale distributions and the start of what Galaxy calls a “maturity era” for the crypto market.

What Galaxy’s Updated Bitcoin Price Forecast Means

Galaxy Digital’s head of research, Alex Thorn, announced the change to the Bitcoin price forecast to $120,000 in a recent note to clients.

The firm cited several reasons: large whale coin sales, capital rotation into other narratives such as AI and gold, reduced volatility due to passive flows and structural changes in the ecosystem.

Galaxy described this as the start of a “maturity era” for Bitcoin; a time where the asset’s behavior is less driven by price shocks and more by institutional absorption and integration.

“If Bitcoin can maintain the $100,000 level, the structural integrity of the nearly three-year bull market will be preserved, though the pace of future gains may slow,” Thorn wrote.

By setting the new target at $120K, Galaxy is toning down earlier, more aggressive forecasts of like $185K while still being bullish long term. The Bitcoin price forecast update shows how the market is evolving institutional expectations.

Factors Driving Galaxy’s Bitcoin Price Forecast

Several factors are driving Galaxy’s updated Bitcoin price forecast. The first is whale distribution. Galaxy noted that around 400,000 – 470,000 BTC were moved or sold in large blocks in recent months, which has created resistance at key levels.

Another factor is institutional flow dynamics; passive flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and large asset-manager participation have changed the way traders participate in Bitcoin markets, reduced volatility and changed liquidity profiles.

The flood of interest in other narratives like AI and gold have also diverted some capital, according to the firm.

Technical support is also a component of the Bitcoin price forecast. Holding the $100,000 level is now seen as a structural support. If that fails, the bull trend could get much weaker.

The firm also pointed to a flash crash of $20 billion in liquidations in October 2025 which “materially damaged” the bull trend.

All these factors combined; form the basis of Galaxy’s updated Bitcoin price forecast; a bullish view but calibrated to the new market mechanics.

How This Forecast Compares to Other Experts

While Galaxy’s Bitcoin price forecast is now at $120,000, other experts have different views. Some are still targeting higher year end levels, citing institutional ramp up and macro tailwinds. The firm Bitwise also described the current consolidation as a “quiet IPO moment”, implying more upside once the market wakes up.

Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick said earlier that Bitcoin could drop below $100,000 before continuing higher and he’s projecting $200,000+ later in the cycle.

What stands out is the consensus around a certain point in the Bitcoin price forecast; holding $100,000 is central to almost every bullish scenario and many firms are adjusting expectations to reflect slower moving structural growth rather than rapid explosive gains.

Expert / Firm	Forecast for Bitcoin end 2025	Notes
Galaxy Digital	$120,000	Revised down from a prior $185K, citing “whale distribution, non-BTC investments… entering a maturity era.”
CoinCodex	$104,545 to $143,700	Range projection for 2025, based on technical-historical modelling.
Traders Union analytics team	Average near $102,884	Statistical model projecting end-2025 value around this level.

What the Updated Bitcoin Price Forecast Means for the Market

The new price forecast has several implications for participants and the crypto ecosystem. For institutional investors, the new target means a shift to structural consolidation rather than speculation.

For retail and derivatives markets, the focus on $100K support may trigger more attention on that level as a risk management point.

For the ecosystem as a whole, the forecast means Bitcoin’s next phase may be integration, infrastructure and adoption rather than pure price momentum.

From a valuation standpoint, markets may need to adjust. A $120K target by year end 2025 is bullish relative to current levels but conservative relative to prior peaks above $126K earlier in the year. The price forecast is thus tempered optimism; bullish but reflective of the changing dynamics.

Finally, the forecast highlights the importance of macro regulatory factors. ETF flows, institutional adoption, regulatory clarity and support frameworks are the notable levers that will influence the path implicit in Galaxy’s forecast.

Conclusion

Galaxy Digital’s new Bitcoin price forecast to $120,000 for 2025 means the market is recalibrating. While they remain bullish long term, they acknowledge the next phase of growth will be slower and more structural than previous cycles.

Holding $100,000 is the important. For investors and participants, the new Bitcoin price forecast means the market might see less wild swings, but more institutional moves and a shift from pure momentum to infrastructure and adoption.

Glossary

Spot ETF flows: Capital moving into or out of exchange-traded funds; that track the basic cryptocurrency.

Flash crash: A sudden; sharp price drop over a short period; often triggered by liquidations; algorithmic trading or systemic stress

Maturity era: A phase in the crypto market where volatility is reduced; institutions are more involved and it’s more structural than speculative.

Support level: A price level where an asset tends to find buying interest and prevent further price drops.

Frequently Asked Questions About Bitcoin Price Forecast

What’s Galaxy Digital’s new target for Bitcoin by the end of 2025?

Galaxy Digital has revised its Bitcoin price forecast to $120,000; by end-2025.

Why did Galaxy lower its Bitcoin forecast?

The firm cited conditions including whale distributions, rotation of capital into themes like AI and gold, passive flows via ETFs and a flash crash event; all of which prompted a re-calibration.