One in Four S&P 500 Firms Could Hold Bitcoin by 2030

This adoption surge will likely be driven by pressure on treasury managers to capitalize on Bitcoin’s potential upside. Currently, only Tesla and Block hold Bitcoin among S&P 500 firms, but projections suggest over 120 more could follow. While the US sees increasing corporate and institutional Bitcoin adoption, Europe still lags behind due to regulatory complexity and conservative financial strategies. Meanwhile, institutional interest in decentralized finance (DeFi) is also limited, thanks to privacy concerns, regulatory uncertainty, and compliance risks.

S&P 500 Companies May Turn to Bitcoin

A growing belief is emerging among financial experts that a large portion of the S&P 500 could adopt Bitcoin as part of their corporate treasuries by the end of the decade. Elliot Chun, a partner at tech-focused advisory firm Architect Partners, predicted that by 2030, around 25% of S&P 500 companies will hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets. 

Chun believes this shift will be driven by increasing pressure on treasury managers, who may fear job security risks if they fail to capitalize on Bitcoin's potential upside. He suggested that managers will feel obliged to at least experiment with Bitcoin as they know that the risk of inaction could outweigh the risk of failure.

Currently, only two S&P 500-listed firms, Tesla and Block, hold Bitcoin. If Chun’s projection materializes, at least another 123 S&P 500 firms will need to follow suit. For now, 89 publicly traded firms globally hold Bitcoin on their balance sheets, with Strategy (MSTR) leading the way as the largest corporate holder. GameStop may soon join the list after its recent $1.3 billion convertible notes offering, which is intended to fund Bitcoin purchases.

Entities holding BTC (Source: Bitcoin Treasuries)

The enthusiasm around Bitcoin's long-term prospects is also fueled by well known tech investors and executives. People like ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, and Block CEO Jack Dorsey predicted that Bitcoin could climb to the $500,000 to $1,000,000 range by 2030. Historically, companies that incorporated Bitcoin into their treasuries have benefited. In fact, Strategy's stock surged by more than 2,000% since it first invested in Bitcoin in August of 2020. This far outpaced Bitcoin’s own 781% growth and the S&P 500’s 64.8% gain during the same period.

However, Chun also warned that not every firm will be able to replicate Strategy’s success. He pointed out that the firm became a “one-of-one” by repositioning itself entirely around Bitcoin, and this move is unlikely to work for every company. Chun pointed out that when Strategy began accumulating Bitcoin, it was one of the few ways for US asset managers to gain some exposure to the cryptocurrency. That changed in January of 2024 when the SEC approved multiple spot Bitcoin ETF applications.

Despite the momentum, Chun argued that Bitcoin is still an ”unproven strategy” as a treasury asset, particularly for those seeking to hedge against inflation or diversify risk. Nevertheless, he believes in Bitcoin’s flexibility and advantages over traditional stores of value like gold. He explained that Bitcoin is a digital commodity recognized under GAAP accounting standards, with a fungible and highly liquid profile that is easier to store and transfer compared to gold.

Europe Lags Behind in Bitcoin Adoption

While Bitcoin adoption among US companies is expected to go up, institutional adoption of Bitcoin in the European Union remains slow. After President Donald Trump’s March 7 executive order to use Bitcoin seized in criminal cases to build a federal Bitcoin reserve, European firms have shown little movement in embracing the cryptocurrency. This hesitation is largely due to the complexity of Europe’s regulatory environment and a more conservative approach to new financial instruments.

Elisenda Fabrega, general counsel at European RWA tokenization platform Brickken, noticed that corporate adoption in Europe is still limited due to structural barriers, including regulatory ambiguity, institutional caution, and market maturity. Unlike the US, where Bitcoin is being positioned as a national reserve asset, Europe still has to take a clear stance on the cryptocurrency's role in corporate treasuries or national finance strategies.

Bitcoin’s economic model, which rewards early adopters, fueled the growing institutional interest in the US, especially after Trump’s executive order. However, European institutions largely refrained from disclosing large Bitcoin holdings or crypto service offerings. Only a few exceptions include BNP Paribas, 21Shares AG, VanEck Europe, Jacobi Asset Management, and Bitpanda. Even so, a recent Bitpanda survey suggests that European financial firms may be underestimating investor demand for crypto exposure by as much as 30%.

(Source: Bitpanda)

Analysts at Bitfinex point to Europe’s fragmented regulatory framework as a key reason behind the slow institutional adoption. Conservative investment mandates and regulatory hurdles have made it quite difficult for European pension funds and large asset managers to confidently allocate to Bitcoin. Retail investor demand in Europe is also generally weaker compared to the US, which has benefited from a more unified capital market and clearer regulatory guidance, particularly after the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Despite the current sluggishness, some signs of potential change emerged. On March 25, BlackRock launched a Bitcoin exchange-traded product (ETP) in Europe, which could help build institutional confidence and encourage more corporate adoption of Bitcoin across the European market.

DeFi Growth Stalled

While Bitcoin adoption is picking up some steam, institutional adoption of decentralized finance (DeFi) still faces many obstacles. This is largely due to concerns around privacy, regulatory uncertainty, and legal accountability. 

Shibtoshi, the founder of the privacy-focused DeFi platform SilentSwap, pointed out that the inherent transparency of on-chain transactions poses a major challenge for businesses that need to protect sensitive information like trading strategies, payroll data, and corporate agreements. He explained that while the concerns around compliance, privacy, and user experience are valid, they are also solvable. Advances in privacy-preserving protocols like SilentSwap, which aim to offer enterprise-grade privacy solutions, are helping make DeFi more appealing to corporate users.

A key issue slowing institutional participation in DeFi is the lack of regulatory clarity, particularly regarding whether DeFi tokens qualify as securities and who bears legal responsibility when decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) make mistakes. Shibtoshi also believes that there is a need for sensible regulation that encourages innovation without sacrificing the core benefits of DeFi, including self-custody, speed, and low-cost transactions.

In the United States, lawmakers recently took a step toward reducing regulatory burdens on DeFi by repealing the controversial IRS broker rule. This rule would have required decentralized platforms to report customer transactions. It was overturned by a majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives in early March. However, there are still some concerns that continued overregulation could ultimately stifle the DeFi sector.

Crypto entrepreneur Artem Tolkachev argued that the push for stringent regulatory compliance risks undermining the very principles of decentralization that define DeFi. He warned that excessive regulation could increase the potential for censorship and shift control away from users toward intermediaries and large institutions.