Bitcoin : Strategic Whale Accumulation Surprises Bearish Market

While Bitcoin is down 25 % from its all-time high of over $109,000, an unexpected movement is emerging: whales are resuming their purchases. These significant wallets, often seen as market barometers, are making their first true return to accumulation since August 2024, according to Glassnode. In a context dominated by distribution and a sentiment reminiscent of the lows of 2022, this strategic signal could disturb the prevailing bearish consensus and rekindle investor attention on current levels.

Whales Reactivate Their Wallets : A Strategic Return to Buying

While the majority of the market remains in defensive mode, whales are initiating a notable change in posture. According to data from Glassnode, this is their “first significant accumulation since August 2024,” a period when Bitcoin was trading between $50,000 and $60,000.

This inflection comes in a context of marked correction: Bitcoin has just lost 25 % of its value from its historic peak above $109,000, falling back to around $83,500.

Such timing does not seem trivial for these investors known for buying during deep pullbacks and lightening their positions during euphoric phases.

Here is what the analyzed data reveals :

• The last wave of accumulation dates back to August 2024, a period marked by a BTC between $50,000 and $60,000, linked to a massive unwinding of positions on the yen ;
• The return of purchases occurs in an overall climate of price retreat ;
• Whales, historically contrarian, tend to position themselves during marked correction phases, signaling a long-term strategic outlook.

This return to accumulation could be interpreted as an anticipation of a medium-term rebound, but it alone cannot redefine the prevailing trend without validation from other cohorts. And it is precisely this that the subsequent analysis shows, where the entire market remains clearly oriented toward distribution.

A Market Still Dominated by Distribution

Alongside the return of whales, the global Accumulation Trend Score remains very low, at 0.15. This reveals that the entire market continues predominantly to distribute its holdings. “Despite the activity of whales, the aggregated market behavior remains oriented towards selling,” notes Glassnode’s analysis.

This indicator, based on monitoring the behaviors of different cohorts over a period of 15 days, ranges from 0 (distribution) to 1 (accumulation). The current score thus indicates a generalized disengagement, with the notable exception of the heaviest wallets.

Such an imbalance between the behavior of whales and that of other categories of investors highlights a lack of consensus on the interpretation of the current correction. Unlike phases where all classes of actors would accumulate in unison, the current environment remains deeply divided.

Furthermore, this divergence complicates market readings and maintains selling pressure that could still affect prices in the short term.

The implications are multiple in this configuration. On the one hand, the resumption of accumulation by whales can be seen as a precursor to a reversal if it is followed by other groups. On the other hand, the lack of support from other investors exposes the market to new bearish stress. If sales persist despite the activity of major wallets, BTC could still test lower levels before establishing a sustainable floor.