Crypto Price Analysis 11-26: BITCOIN: BTC, ETHEREUM: ETH, SOLANA: SOL, ARBITRUM: ARB, FILECOIN: FIL

The cryptocurrency market has seen a mixed performance over the past 24 hours, with the AI sector registering notable gains, while Bitcoin (BTC) struggled to reclaim $88,000 and Ethereum (ETH) remained pinned under $3,000. BTC fell to an intraday low of $86,230 early on Wednesday before recovering and moving to $87,981. 

However, momentum fizzled out, and BTC moved to its current level of $87,632, marginally down over the past 24 hours. 

Meanwhile, ETH briefly reached an intraday high of $2,976 before moving to $2,932. The altcoin is up over 1% in the past 24 hours, trading around $2,931. Ripple (XRP) is down 0.43%, while Solana (SOL) is up over 2%, trading around $139. Dogecoin (DOGE) is up almost 2% despite Dogecoin ETFs' muted debut, while Cardano is up 1.38% at $0.423. Chainlink (LINK) is also trading in positive territory, up 1.59% at $13, while Stellar (XLM) is up 1.50% at $0.253. Litecoin (LTC), Hedera (HBAR), Toncoin (TON), and Polkadot (DOT) are also trading in positive territory. 

Texas Buys The Dip, Purchases $5M Of IBIT 

Texas has purchased $5 million worth of shares in BlackRock’s IBIT ETF, with another $5 million set aside for a self-custodied Bitcoin buy. The purchase was completed on November 20 and was announced by Lee Bratcher, President of the Texas Blockchain Council. Bratcher added that the government eventually plans to self-custody BTC. However, because it is still finalizing the process, the initial allocation was made with BlackRock’s IBIT. 

“Texas has become the first state to purchase BTC with a $10 million investment on November 20, for $87,000.”

Bitcoin Bond Company CEO Pierre Rochard called the purchase significant, adding that it reflected a change in attitude towards BTC in a very short time. 

“In five years, we went from ‘governments will ban BTC’ to ‘governments are only buying a small amount of BTC’. Hyperbitcoinization has happened, is happening, and will continue to happen.”

Polymarket Secures Regulatory Approval 

Prediction market platform Polymarket has secured regulatory approval from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to begin operations as an intermediated trading platform. Polymarket stated in a notice that the CFTC issued an Amended Order of Designation, allowing the company to operate an intermediated trading platform, subject to the complete set of requirements applicable to federally regulated US exchanges. Polymarket added that the approval will allow the platform to onboard brokerages and customers directly, facilitating trading on US venues. Polymarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan stated, 

“This approval allows us to operate in a way that reflects the maturity and transparency that the US regulatory framework demands.”

The approval came months after the CFTC and the US Department of Justice closed an investigation into Polymarket regarding whether the platform had accepted trades from US-based users. 

Spot Bitcoin ETFs Record $129M In Net Inflows 

Spot Bitcoin ETFs registered net inflows of over $129 million on November 25 as investor sentiment turned positive. Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) led the inflows with $170.80 million, followed by BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) with $83.01 million. However, other ETFs, including Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) and ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB), registered notable outflows, indicating mixed investor sentiment. Cumulative inflows across spot Bitcoin ETFs have crossed $57.61 billion. 

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis 

Bitcoin (BTC) is on track to end November in the red, breaking a long-standing pattern of it being one of its strongest months of the year. The flagship cryptocurrency historically averages gains of around 40% in November, but is currently trading 20% below its monthly open. The performance has led analysts to question whether seasonal performances still matter with October also failing to live up to market expectations. Bitfinex analysts have attributed BTC’s recent price action to overheated buying between $106,000 and $118,000, noting that many of those buyers were now capitulating at a loss. 

Short-term BTC holders are also under pressure as BTC trades below its average cost basis, something which has happened only three times since early 2024. 

Meanwhile, crypto analyst James Check warned that BTC investors could be in for more pain, arguing that more leverage could still be flushed out. Check described the market meltdown as a “2-sigma long liquidation event,” which wiped out a “chunk of degen gamblers. He cautioned that another flush could be on the cards, stating, 

“Most of the leverage is gone, but the market has an incredible nose that can sniff out the final hold-outs. We wouldn’t be too surprised if we wick into the $70,000-$80,000 zone to flush the final leverage pockets.”

A 2-sigma liquidation event refers to significant market movements that trigger a mass liquidation of leveraged positions. However, markets are showing signs of stabilizing and may be close to finding a local bottom. Augustine Fan, head of insights at SignalPlus, stated, 

“Markets are currently so oversold from both sentiment and technical perspectives (such as Bollinger Bands), and prices are likely to have seen local lows for now, absent any new exogenous factors (such as DAT forced selling). A sustained break below would open up further significant downside, but it is not the base case scenario for now.”

Additionally, CryptoQuant analysts have identified a local bottom that could lead to a sustained rebound. 

“On-chain data shows a market shaped by institutional redistribution, structural weakness, and a rebound that may signal a local bottom.”

However, they added that the 1,000 to 10,000 BTC cohort is still selling, delaying confirmation of a trend reversal. 

“The recovery is promising, but the end of the bearish phase requires a clear shift in whale behavior.”

BTC started the previous weekend in bearish territory, dropping over 5% and settling at $94,503. It recovered on Saturday, rising 1.10% to $95,544, but was back in the red on Sunday, dropping 1.42% to $94,183. Sellers retained control on Monday, BTC fell 2.21% to $92,100. The flagship cryptocurrency fell to an intraday low of $89,183 on Tuesday. However, it recovered from this level to reclaim $92,000 and settle at $92,914, ultimately rising 0.88%. Selling pressure returned on Wednesday as BTC fell to a low of $88,483 before settling at $91,461.

Source: TradingView

Selling pressure intensified on Thursday as BTC fell over 5%, slipping below $90,000 and settling at $86,536. Bearish sentiment persisted on Friday as BTC plunged to an intraday low of $80,524 before rebounding to reclaim $85,000 and settle at $85,068. Price action was mixed over the weekend as BTC fell 0.45% on Saturday before rising 2.51% on Sunday and settling at $86,808. Buyers retained control on Monday as BTC started the week in positive territory, rising 1.68% to $88,266. Selling pressure returned on Tuesday as the price fell 1.07% to $87,325. BTC is marginally down during the ongoing session, trading around $86,922.

Ethereum (ETH) Price Analysis

Ethereum (ETH) started the week in bullish territory, rising over 5% to cross $2,900 and settle at $2,954. It registered a marginal increase on Tuesday but is back in the red during the ongoing session, down 1.69% at $2,910.

Vitalik Buterin has ETH in the midst of the privacy coin narrative, stating that “Privacy is not a feature. Privacy is hygiene.” The comments were in response to the recent breach of client data across major banks, including JPMorgan, Citi, and Morgan Stanley. As a result, the privacy narrative has found new relevance in the ongoing market cycle. In October, the Ethereum Foundation launched a new privacy-focused cluster, releasing initial details about Kohaku, a privacy-centric browser wallet and a software development kit.

Meanwhile, spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $78.58 million in net inflows on November 25, extending the inflow streak to three days. BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) led the inflows with $46.09 million, followed by Fidelity’s Fidelity Ethereum Fund (FETH) with $45 million. The Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust (ETH) recorded $8.29 million in net inflows, while the Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE) registered $23.33 million in outflows, continuing its recent trend of outflows.

ETH started the previous weekend in the red, dropping nearly 4% to $3,113. The altcoin recovered on Saturday, rising 1.74% but returned to bearish territory on Sunday, dropping over 2% to $3,097. Sellers retained control on Monday as ETH fell 2.18% to $3,030. Despite the overwhelming selling pressure, the price recovered on Tuesday, rising over 3% to cross $3,100 and settle at $3,124. Selling pressure returned on Wednesday as ETH plunged to a low of $2,871. However, it rebounded from this level to reclaim $3,000 and settle at $3,023, ultimately dropping over 3%.

Source: TradingView

Bearish sentiment intensified on Thursday as ETH fell over 6% and settled at $2,832. The altcoin dropped to an intraday low of $2,620 on Friday as selling pressure persisted. However, the price recovered from this level and settled at $2,766, ultimately dropping 2.33%. Price action was positive over the weekend as ETH registered a marginal increase on Saturday before rising 1.18% on Sunday and settling at $2,802. Bullish sentiment intensified on Monday as the price rose over 5% to cross $2,900 and settle at $2,954.ETH registered a marginal increase on Tuesday but is back in bearish territory during the ongoing session, down 1.69% at $2,910.

Solana (SOL) Price Analysis

Solana (SOL) ETFs recorded another strong performance as they started the week in bullish territory. The ETFs recorded $58 million in net inflows on Monday, the highest since early November. The latest inflows extend SOL’s inflow streak to 20 days, making it one of the most resilient ETF runs in recent memory.

According to data from SoSoValue, the inflows were led by Bitwise’s BSOL, which recorded $39.9 million on Monday, the third-largest single-day inflow since launch. The total net inflows for Solana ETFs now stand at $568 million, while combined net assets have climbed to $843 million, 1.09% of SOL’s market share. The sustained ETFs are in stark contrast with the broader market backdrop, with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs facing heavy redemptions.

SOL started the previous weekend in the red, dropping 4% and settling at $138. It registered a marginal recovery on Saturday before dropping 1.67% on Sunday and settling at $137. Selling pressure intensified on Monday as SOL fell 4.55% and settled at $130. Despite the overwhelming selling pressure, SOL recovered on Tuesday, rising over 7% and settling at $140. However, it returned to bearish territory on Wednesday, dropping to a low of $130 before settling at $137.

Source: TradingView

SOL reached an intraday high of $144 on Thursday but lost momentum after reaching this level. As a result, it fell 2.48% to $133. Selling pressure intensified on Friday as SOL fell to an intraday low of $121. However, it rebounded from this level and settled at $128, ultimately dropping 3.69%. Price action was mixed over the weekend, with SOL falling 0.83% on Saturday before rising 2.36% on Sunday and settling at $130. Bullish sentiment intensified on Monday as SOL rose over 6% and settled at $138. The price fell to an intraday low of $133 before rebounding and registering a marginal increase. However, SOL is back in the red during the ongoing session, down 1.58% to $136.

Arbitrum (ARB) Price Analysis

Arbitrum (ARB) started the previous weekend in the red, dropping 2.90% on Friday. It recovered on Saturday, rising 1.56% before dropping over 2% on Sunday, ending the weekend at $0.235. Sellers retained control on Monday as ARB fell nearly 4% to $0.226. The price recovered on Tuesday, rising almost 5% to $0.237. However, bearish sentiment returned on Wednesday as ARB fell 3.37% to $0.229. Sellers retained control on Thursday as the price dropped by over 6% to $0.214.

Source: TradingView

Selling pressure intensified on Friday as ARB fell 6.05% to $0.201. Price action was mixed over the weekend as ARB fell nearly 1% on Saturday before registering a marginal increase and settling at $0.200. Bullish sentiment intensified on Monday as the price rose over 8% and settled at $0.217. Despite the positive sentiment, ARB was back in the red on Tuesday, dropping 0.51%. The price is down over 2% during the ongoing session, trading around $0.211.

Filecoin (FIL) Price Analysis

Filecoin’s (FIL) price action was mixed over the previous weekend, rising 1.65% on Saturday before dropping 3.50% on Sunday and settling at $1.958. Bullish sentiment intensified on Monday as FIL rallied, reaching an intraday high of $2.475. However, it lost momentum after reaching this level and settled at $2.020, ultimately rising 3.17%. Selling pressure returned on Tuesday as FIL fell 1.735 to $1.985. Selling pressure intensified on Wednesday as the price fell to a low of $1.758 before settling at $1.877.

Source: TradingView

Sellers retained control on Thursday as FIL fell over 3% and settled at $1.817. Bearish sentiment intensified on Friday as the price plunged nearly 9% to $1.659. Price action remained bearish over the weekend, with FIL dropping 2.71% on Saturday and 0.19% on Sunday at $1.611. Positive sentiment returned on Monday as the price rose 1.99% to $1.643. FIL continued pushing higher on Tuesday, rising 1.77% to $1.672. However, it is back in the red during the ongoing session, with the price down 3.53% at $1.613.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.