Estimating Bitcoin's support levels for the next cycle bottom

Using Monte Carlo simulations and the 200-week moving average, Diaman Partners estimates Bitcoin's next cycle bottom could range from $60,000 to $80,000 by 2026.

It is now clear to most investors, especially those who have survived one or more crypto winters, that Bitcoin moves in cycles of about four years. Many argued until 2022 that Bitcoin would always remain above its previous highs.

This happened in 2011, in 2014 and in 2018. In 2022, however, the price of Bitcoin fell, due to the collapse of FTX, to $15,000, below the fateful threshold of $20,000, which was briefly reached, albeit for a few days in December 2017.

While everyone is trying to predict what the maximum value of Bitcoin will be in this cycle, which is likely to end in late October 2025, the research department at Diaman Partners has attempted to understand how to estimate what the minimum value of Bitcoin will be in 2026, should the crypto winter materialize in the coming months. Many experts speculate that Bitcoin's cyclical phase is over and that we are now entering a new, more ‘mature’ phase of more steady growth.

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