Bitcoin Breaks Bear Flag as Analyst Targets $39K Into Autumn

Analyst More Crypto Online notes that Bitcoin has cleanly lost the lower boundary of its trend channel, a structure they have repeatedly compared to previous bear markets, including 2022.

In those past cycles, once similar ranges broke, “that was it” — declines accelerated quickly as the market moved from a grinding counter-trend rally into impulsive downside.

Using Fibonacci extensions, the commentator identifies roughly $39,000 as the “tentative” downside target, mirroring the same 100% extension logic that produced their earlier $82,000 upside target for the now-completed B-wave rally.

They emphasize the word tentative, stressing that a wider B-wave is still theoretically possible, but increasingly unlikely based on timing and seasonality: “From a time cycle point of view and also from a seasonality point of view, a wider wave B at this point would be unusual.”

Near term, structural support sits at three key levels: the late-March low around $65,000, another zone near $62,700, and the February low around $60,200. These are flagged as areas “where the market might react,” but not necessarily where the full move would end.

Despite the bearish structure, the analyst does not rule out a sizable relief rally. Bitcoin’s daily RSI is now oversold, and historically “whenever it is oversold, it tends to produce a bounce,” with previous examples in November and February.

They frame this as a likely but not guaranteed outcome, reinforcing that “an oversold reading doesn’t guarantee a bounce.”

In Elliott Wave terms, the preferred path is a completed Wave 1 down, followed by a Wave 2 relief rally, before a sharper third-wave decline accelerates the move toward the low-$40,000s and potentially $39,000.

Resistance for that possible Wave 2 is placed between $73,000 and $79,300. A strong rejection from that band would, in their view, “indicate the start of a third wave decline.”

For now, however, “there isn’t really much more to say” on very short timeframes: the drop has been nearly straight down, and the microstructure offers few clues.

The first real signal that bulls are regaining some control would be a break above the last swing high near $69,650, combined with a visible five-wave advance on lower timeframes.

Until that happens, More Crypto Online is treating Bitcoin as firmly in a bear market, with fast downside moves and slow, weaker countertrend rallies as the baseline pattern.

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