Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Reclaims $85,000 Ahead Of Trump’s Liberation Day Speech

Bitcoin (BTC) has registered a sharp increase after dropping to a low of $83,914 as markets rally ahead of President Donald Trump’s Liberation Day speech. BTC has struggled to push above this level, facing resistance around the 200-day SMA. 

The flagship cryptocurrency endured a difficult weekend as the price fell below the 20 and 200-day SMAs to a low of $81,578 on Sunday. BTC is currently up over 2% and trading at $85,718. 

Bitcoin (BTC) Pumps Ahead Of Liberation Day Speech 

Bitcoin (BTC) held firm above $80,000 this week despite facing significant selling pressure over the weekend and Monday. The price rallied on Tuesday to move past the 20-day SMA and $85,000, with buyers eying a move past the 200-day SMA during the current session. The primary catalyst for BTC’s sudden jump is Trump’s Liberation Day speech. The President is expected to announce reciprocal tariffs on a host of countries, including the European Union, India, China, and Japan. Analysts have warned the tariffs could lead to a recession, with Goldman Sachs and PIMCO raising the odds of a recession to 35%. A market downturn could also stem from slowing business investments and weakening consumer spending. 

While BTC should decline after Trump announces the tariffs, analysts believe the markets could bounce back due to several reasons. The Liberation Day tariffs have already been priced in by market participants as President Trump has been talking about them for weeks. Another reason is that Bitcoin has encountered similar challenges previously and not only survived but thrived. Examples of Bitcoin’s resilience can be seen in its performance during the COVID-19 pandemic and the regulatory scrutiny during Gary Gensler’s tenure as SEC Chair. Lastly, a recession could be bullish for BTC and other risk assets as it could prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Gadi Chait, an investment manager at Xapo, stated, 

“These price swings may rattle speculators, but ultimately this is just noise. Bitcoin has always been and always will be a long-term play; its value lies in its inherent sovereignty, decentralization, and finite nature, not short-term volatility. We’ve been here before and we’ll likely be here again, but Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory remains undeniable.”

BlackRock Secures Approval To Launch Bitcoin ETP 

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has secured approval from the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) to begin operations as a crypto asset firm. According to reports, the approval allows the asset manager to offer its new European Bitcoin ETP in the UK, joining companies like Coinbase, PayPal, and Revolut. BlackRock is the 51st company to be registered with the FCA. The FCA is known to be selective and has approved only 14% of applications, turning down most applications due to missing or poor-quality information. 

The iShares Bitcoin ETP began trading last week on Euronext Paris and Amsterdam under the IB1T ticker, launching with a temporary fee waiver that lowered its expense ratio to 0.15% until the end of 2024, after which it will increase to 0.25%. The ETP gives investors direct exposure to BTC, with each share backed by Bitcoin held in Custody by Coinbase. The launch comes after the resounding success of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, which has $48 billion in assets since its launch. The ETP uses a similar structure to IBIT, giving European investors a regulated way to gain exposure to BTC without holding the asset. The ETP has been issued through a Swiss-based special-purpose vehicle to ensure compliance with European financial regulations. 

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis 

Bitcoin (BTC) is gaining considerable momentum during the current session. The flagship cryptocurrency has surged past $87,000 as buyers set their sights on $90,000 ahead of President Trump’s Liberation Day address. BTC posted a local high of $87,374, marking its best performance since March 28, when it reached a high of $87,487 before registering a dramatic decline. BTC remains extremely volatile in the run-up to the speech during which President Trump is expected to announce sweeping reciprocal tariffs on several countries. While most cryptocurrencies continue to trade in the red, BTC has clawed back significant ground as it looks to reclaim $90,000. Popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital stated while discussing BTC’s latest price action, 

“The consolidation between the two Bull Market EMAs continues. However, the 21-week EMA (green) represents lower prices as it declines. This week the green EMA represents $87650. The declining nature of this EMA will make it easier for $BTC to break out.”

The analyst flagged more bullish news highlighting BTC’s attempts to break out of an extended downtrend. 

“Bitcoin is one Daily Candle Close above & retest of the Downtrend away from breaking out into a new technical uptrend.”

While BTC has registered a substantial increase over the past couple of sessions, analysts have warned it isn’t out of the woods yet, adding that the flagship cryptocurrency could yet drop to $76,000. QCP Capital stated, 

“In crypto, sentiment remains broadly subdued. BTC continues to trade without conviction, while ETH is holding the line at $1,800 support. Across the board, crypto markets are showing signs of exhaustion, with numerous coins down 90% YTD, with some shedding over 30% in the past week. Without a material shift in macro or a compelling catalyst, we don't expect a meaningful reversal.”

However, some analysts offered a more optimistic outlook. Asset management firm Swissblock stated it sees no signs of an imminent collapse. However, it flagged the risk of a drop to $76,000 in the event of negative market developments. 

BTC started the previous month on a bullish note, rising almost 2% on Monday as it raced to an intraday high of $88,839 before settling at $87,523. The flagship cryptocurrency encountered volatility and selling pressure on Tuesday. As a result, it registered a marginal drop and settled at $87,417. Sellers retained control on Wednesday as the price dropped below $87,000 and settled at $86,942. BTC registered a marginal increase Thursday to reclaim $87,000 and settle at $87,236. Bearish sentiment intensified on Friday as BTC plunged over 3%, slipping below $85,000 and the 200-day SMA and settling at $84,422.

Source: TradingView

Price action remained bearish over the weekend as BTC fell over 2% on Saturday, slipping below the 20-day SMA and settling at $82,704, but not before dropping to a low of $81,697. BTC remained in the red on Sunday, registering a marginal decline. BTC encountered volatility on Monday as buyers and sellers struggled to establish control. Buyers ultimately gained the upper hand as BTC registered a marginal increase and settled at $82,511. Bullish sentiment intensified on Tuesday as the price surged over 3%, moving past the 20-day SMA and $85,000 to settle at $85,150. BTC is up over 2% during the ongoing session, with the price trading at $86,885 after reaching a day high of $86,933.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.