Recession Ahead ? The Fed Stands Firm Against Trump’s Pressure

The financial markets are wobbling, investors are worried, and cryptocurrencies are undergoing another unstable period. At the heart of this agitation, one name keeps coming up: Donald Trump. According to several analysts and market observers, the American president would be implementing a strategy aimed at deliberately weakening the financial markets in order to force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to lower interest rates. A hypothesis that, while spectacular, is based on public statements and concerning economic signals.

Trump and the Fed : A Battle for Influence over Rates

Last February, Donald Trump publicly stated that the Federal Reserve should lower interest rates, a demand that encountered the inflexibility of Jerome Powell, chairman of the American monetary institution.

Faced with this refusal, the Trump administration would have, according to analyst Anthony Pompliano, undertaken to provoke a sharp fall in financial assets in order to pressure the Fed. “The government is taking charge by crashing asset prices to force Jerome Powell to lower rates,” he asserts.

The reasons behind this maneuver would be multiple:

• Force a decrease in interest rates to alleviate pressure on American debt ;
• Influence monetary policy by circumventing the independence of the Fed ;
• Create an economic shock to position oneself as a savior ;
• Modify market expectations by encouraging investors to anticipate more favorable policies under this second Trump term.

The markets did not take long to react. A collapse of stock indices followed, accompanied by a significant drop in bond yields, with the 10-year Treasury rate losing nearly 60 basis points in a few weeks.

Alex Krüger, a renowned analyst, corroborates this thesis in a message published on X (formerly Twitter) on March 11, 2025.

Meanwhile, the Fed remains firm, as it does not foresee any immediate rate cut, although the markets anticipate a possible reduction as early as May.

Cryptos Under Pressure and the Risk of Recession

While there is a plunge in stocks and bonds, cryptocurrencies are not spared from the surrounding volatility.

On March 10, a brutal drop in crypto markets accompanied the stock market panic, fueled by rising fears of recession in the United States.

JPMorgan has raised the probability of a recession in 2025 to 40 %, up from 30 % previously. For Goldman Sachs, this threat is amplified by Trump’s aggressive trade policy, which could worsen economic tensions.

Meanwhile, some institutional players are trying to exploit this period of instability to strengthen their presence in the crypto ecosystem.

BlackRock, through its subsidiary Securitize, is expanding its activities in decentralized finance by integrating its tokenized funds into DeFi platforms like Morpho and Compound.

For its part, the Cboe BZX exchange is pushing to introduce staking on Fidelity’s Ethereum ETFs, an attempt to take advantage of the more favorable regulatory climate under the Trump administration.

If Trump manages to impose a rate cut, the effects could be twofold. In the short term, investors could benefit from cheaper credit access, but premature monetary easing risks reviving inflationary pressures.

Furthermore, by creating artificial volatility in the markets, the president is playing a dangerous game that could further destabilize the global economy.

In the immediate term, the crypto market remains suspended on the Fed’s decisions and the political movements in Washington. One thing is certain: the upcoming period could be decisive for the future of financial regulation and the evolution of cryptocurrencies in the global economic system.