Bitcoin Rebounds to $106K After Ceasefire, $120K in Sight

Bitcoin surged back above $106,000 late Monday following a rollercoaster weekend of geopolitical and market drama, as reports emerged that Iran and Israel had reached a “complete and total” ceasefire.

United States President Donald Trump, posting on Truth Social, claimed the truce would take effect within six hours, providing a powerful tailwind to risk assets across the board.

The leading cryptocurrency, which had plunged to as low as $98,500 barely 24 hours earlier amid fears of escalation in the Middle East, jumped nearly 3% following Trump’s post. At press time, Bitcoin was trading around $105,300 as bulls eye the long-touted $120,000 mark.

Markets React with “Buy the Dip” Mentality

The ceasefire headlines triggered a swift reaction across global markets. US stock index futures climbed 0.5%, oil prices collapsed to $65 per barrel after briefly spiking to $75 earlier in the day, and altcoins roared higher.

Ether, XRP, and Solana registered gains of 8–10% while meme coins also soared past their resistance levels. While early confusion lingered over the authenticity of the ceasefire, Reuters later confirmed that a senior Iranian official had acknowledged Tehran’s agreement to the proposal.

As one crypto trader noted, “the best marketing for an asset is its price.” That statement mirrors George Soros’ theory of reflexivity — the idea that rising prices fuel positive sentiment, which in turn feeds further price gains.

The best marketing for a coin is the price going up only pic.twitter.com/tol76axUsw

— Solid 堅固 (@SolidTradesz) June 20, 2025

Bitcoin’s performance through the recent geopolitical storm illustrates this well: despite war fears and momentary panic, it has largely held the six-figure line.

“Since June 10, BTC investors classified as Loss Sellers rose 29% (from $74K to $95.6K), showing growing pressure on weak hands. But Conviction Buyers also increased, suggesting sentiment isn’t collapsing,” on-chain data firm Glassnode noted.

Since June 10, $BTC investors classified as Loss Sellers rose 29% (from 74K to 95.6K), showing growing pressure on weak hands. But Conviction Buyers also increased, suggesting sentiment isn’t collapsing. Some are cutting losses – others are actively lowering their cost basis. pic.twitter.com/cwuN8TBAe2

— glassnode (@glassnode) June 23, 2025

Moreover, exchange outflows are picking up, a signal that buyers are moving coins into long-term storage rather than looking to sell.

Liquidity Is Loosening — And That’s Bullish

Beyond the ceasefire, macroeconomic winds may be shifting in Bitcoin’s favor. Two previously hawkish Federal Reserve governors, Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller, have now opened the door to rate cuts as early as July.

The shift in tone suggests a growing consensus within the Fed toward easing, despite Chairman Powell’s insistence on being data-dependent.

A dovish Fed typically fuels risk appetite and in the post-pandemic world, crypto has often been the first to benefit. Falling oil prices, which crashed 6.5% on Monday alone, also reduce inflation fears and bolster the case for lower rates.

Institutional Flows Show No Signs of Slowing

CoinShares reported that digital asset funds have seen ten consecutive weeks of inflows, with $1.24 billion entering in the latest week alone — $1.114 billion of that into Bitcoin.

That brings Bitcoin’s year-to-date inflows to $12.7 billion, as investors continue to buy the dip instead of fleeing the market. Notably, short Bitcoin products saw only minor outflows, signaling that bears aren’t emboldened despite the volatility.

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