Has Bitcoin (BTC) Topped For The Cycle?

Bitcoin (BTC) is at a critical point in its current cycle, with signs that it may be diverging from past halving patterns. Unlike previous cycles, where strong rallies followed halvings, this one has been more uncertain. Bitcoin’s market movements are now largely shaped by macroeconomic shifts and new institutional influences.

Political factors, such as Trump’s pro-crypto stance and state-level Bitcoin adoption, have also added unexpected variables. With these new dynamics in play, the question remains: has Bitcoin already topped the cycle? Or is there still room for another rally beyond $100,000?

Has BTC Detached From Other Cycles?

The current Bitcoin cycle appears to be diverging from previous ones. It’s showing a different price trajectory compared to past halvings.

Historically, Bitcoin experienced strong rallies at this point in the cycle, particularly in the 2012-2016 and 2016-2020 phases.

However, this cycle saw a surge beginning in October 2024 and December 2024, followed by consolidation in January 2025 and a correction by late February.

This contrasts with prior cycles, where Bitcoin continued rallying aggressively post-halving. The deviation suggests that macroeconomic factors, market structure changes, and the growing presence of institutional investors may be altering Bitcoin’s traditional cycle dynamics.

Unlike the retail-driven speculative booms of past halvings, Bitcoin is now treated as a more mature asset class, which influences its price movement.

Bitcoin Cycles Comparison. Source: Bitcoin Cycles Comparison.

Another key factor is the diminishing strength of Bitcoin’s surges as cycles progress. The exponential rallies seen in 2012-2016 and 2016-2020 far exceeded those of the 2020-2024 cycle and the current one.

While this is expected due to Bitcoin’s increasing market capitalization, it also reflects the growing influence of institutional investors, banks, and even governments. In the long term, it’s likely to introduce more stability and structured market behavior.

Despite these shifts, previous cycles also had periods of consolidation and correction before resuming their uptrend. If Bitcoin follows that precedent, this phase could be a temporary reset before another upward move.

However, given the structural changes in the market, this cycle could unfold differently, with less extreme volatility but a more prolonged and sustainable price appreciation rather than the explosive parabolic tops of the past.

Long-Term Holder MVRV Signals a Shift in Cycle Dynamics

Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holder (LTH) MVRV ratio clearly demonstrates a pattern of diminishing returns across cycles. In the 2016-2020 cycle, LTH MVRV peaked at 35.8, reflecting an extreme level of unrealized profit among long-term holders before distribution began.

By the 2020-2024 cycle, this peak had dropped significantly to 12.2. It showed a lower overall multiple of unrealized profits despite Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs.

In the current cycle, LTH MVRV has so far only peaked at 4.35, indicating that long-term holders have not seen nearly the same level of liquid profits as in past cycles.

This sharp decline across cycles suggests that Bitcoin’s upside potential is compressing over time, which aligns with the broader trend of diminishing returns as the asset matures and market structure changes.

BTC Long-Term Holders MVRV. Source: Glassnode.

This data implies that Bitcoin’s cyclical growth phases are becoming less explosive. This is likely due to the increasing influence of institutional investors and a more efficient market.

As the market cap expands, significantly more capital inflows are required to drive the same percentage gains seen in early cycles.

While this could suggest that Bitcoin’s long-term growth is stabilizing, it does not necessarily confirm that the cycle has already peaked.

Previous cycles have had periods of consolidation before reaching final highs. Also, institutional participation could lead to more prolonged accumulation phases rather than sudden blow-off tops.

However, if diminishing MVRV peaks continue, it could mean Bitcoin’s ability to deliver extreme cycle-based returns is fading, and this cycle may already be past its most aggressive growth phase.

Bitcoin’s Long-Term Outlook

Despite the differences in this cycle, experts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, particularly with increasing adoption at the state level.

Harrison Seletsky, director of business development at SPACE ID, told BeInCrypto:

“Expectations were running high ahead of Friday’s White House Crypto Summit, but the aftermath was somewhat anticlimactic. The market didn’t react with as much excitement since the US is currently holding their confiscated BTC instead of actively buying more. However, there’s a lot more to be excited about than the market is pricing in. It’s encouraging to see that not only has President Trump signed an executive order for a crypto reserve – whatever it may look like in practice – but we’re also seeing this conversation moving ahead at the state level. The day before the Summit also saw Texas pass Senate Bill 21, which allows it to establish a state-controlled crypto reserve, consisting of Bitcoin and other digital assets. A year ago, none of us could have dreamed of this. Texas’s move could open the floodgates for other states to follow suit, as well as state and local level municipalities internationally.”

Nic Puckrin, founder of The Coin Bureau, told BeInCrypto that Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory remains tied to macroeconomic conditions. He points to the fact that investors in the current cycle had unrealistic expectations from the Bitcoin crypto reserve.

Notably, there was a growing perception that the US government would buy billions worth of new BTC, causing a supply shock. From any economic or political concept, that would not have been possible.

It’s hard to imagine Congress approving such a purchase with taxpayers’ money to invest in risk assets. This unrealistic expectation was a catalyst behind the current price corrections.

“The current crypto sell-off reveals a mismatch between expectations and reality. The reserve will now only constitute crypto that the US government already has in its ownership and it won’t be buying new BTC on the market. It’s also important to point out that neither crypto nor stock prices are at the top of Trump’s agenda. In fact, he even dismissed stock price crashes as being the work of globalists. Meanwhile, the improving regulatory landscape and promise of integration with traditional finance rails will cement crypto’s important role in the US financial landscape. It’s worth celebrating this progress, instead of complaining about the gloomy short-term backdrop,” said Puckrin.

Based on all that, this cycle appears to be different from previous ones. So, despite recent corrections, BTC may not have topped yet.

New factors like institutional adoption, Trump’s crypto stance, and geopolitical tensions make historical comparisons less reliable. Unlike past cycles, Bitcoin price action isn’t following a clear post-halving rally.

At the same time, uncertainty is higher than ever. Macro conditions, the trade war, and changing US policies are adding complexity. With Bitcoin now part of the global financial system, its price is reacting to more than just halving cycles. The path forward is unclear, but the cycle isn’t necessarily over.