Arthur Hayes Explains How the FED Could Send Bitcoin to $1 Million

Former BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has outlined a scenario in which the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy could drive Bitcoin to the unprecedented price of $1 million per coin.

In a recent interview with early Bitcoin investor Kyle Chasse, Hayes explained why Bitcoin’s value is now primarily determined by global fiat liquidity rather than technology or adoption cycles.

“Bitcoin has transitioned from this sort of technological digital bearer asset into the best smoke alarm for fiat liquidity that we have globally,” Hayes stated, adding, “previously that role was held by gold.”

According to Hayes, while Bitcoin’s technological underpinnings remain solid and primarily unchanged, its price action is increasingly tied to central bank policies, particularly those of the Federal Reserve. He emphasized that he focuses entirely on liquidity when analyzing Bitcoin’s price trajectory.

The pundit further pointed to a “seminal change” in Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s recent statements as evidence of a shifting monetary landscape. Despite inflation remaining above the Fed’s target, Powell has indicated a decrease in the pace of quantitative tightening, allowing fewer Treasury securities to roll off their balance sheet.

“Powell said that in the future, we might allow our mortgage-backed security runoff, which is about $35 billion a month, to be negated by buying $35 billion a month of treasuries,” Hayes explained. “That’s very positive for dollar liquidity.”

Perhaps most significantly, Hayes highlighted Powell’s comment that the “inflationary aspects of tariffs are transitory,” suggesting the Fed views any price increases from Trump’s trade policies as temporary disruptions rather than persistent inflation.

“Tariffs don’t matter anymore to Powell, and they shouldn’t matter anymore as crypto investors,” Hayes argued. “If Trump does 50% or 2%, it doesn’t matter because we know that Powell’s going to continue to provide the monetary conditions that we need.”

This policy shift has made Hayes “extremely bullish” on crypto’s trajectory. When pressed about price targets, Hayes mentioned his previously stated $1 million Bitcoin prediction, noting it could also be “$660,000 or $500,000 or $250,000 or some round number that the human mind finds significant.”

Earlier this week, he identified a crucial support level for Bitcoin amid market uncertainty caused by new U.S. tariffs. On April 2, President Trump announced a minimum 10% tariff on all countries effective April 5, with additional “reciprocal tariffs” starting April 9. In a Thursday tweet, Hayes emphasized the importance of Bitcoin maintaining support above $76,500 until U.S. Tax Day on April 15.

“The market doesn’t like Liberation Day,” Hayes wrote, suggesting that after April 15, the crypto market could be freed from the uncertainty and volatility triggered by these trade policies. 

BTC traded at $81,835 at press time, reflecting a 1.01% drop in the past 24 hours.