Will XRP Slip Below $1 Again?

XRP is trading at $2.38 after several waves of selloffs. The 1-day chart shows that since the second week of October, the asset has been in decline.

One of the massive dips that remains fresh in many minds is the one that occurred on the 10th day of the month. The coin opened the session at $2.80 but retraced below $1.80 on Coinbase, slipping even lower on Binance.

While it rebounded, erasing some of the losses, the altcoin lost an average of 15% across exchanges.  However, price action after that massive move was not as bullish as many would have expected. XRP registered another notable downtrend the next week, losing over 5%.

Nonetheless, it experienced another period of significant selling pressure on Friday, leading to a retest of the $2.20 support. Trading activity over the last two weeks has made Friday the most bearish day of the week.

Away from the current trend, the latest downtrend is unsurprising, as a previous analysis predicted it. One article in September explored the likelihood of a drop below $2.70 and concluded that there was a high chance.

The piece noted that market sentiment was declining to levels last seen in April and warned that XRP has tested the $2.70 mark multiple times. It added that losing the $2.70 barrier could prove detrimental for the bulls, and a dip could result in a slip to $2.30. In the worst-case scenario, the article predicted a drop to $2.10. Although the recent low exceeded expectations, prices retraced.

Since the latest declines began, the altcoin has lost 23% and traded more than 40% below its high two weeks ago.

New Developments on XRP

XRP recently piqued the interest of some institutions, with some planning to buy $1 billion worth of the coin. Last month, Axelar and Midas announced plans to buy $700 million worth of XRP.

Away from the news, the altcoin is printing sell signals on the charts. It has been on the uptrend for a while now, breaking one resistance after another. Many will recall the thrill from the community when it cruised past $2 and reclaimed $3. At its height, the cryptocurrency registered an all-time high of $3.66.

However, following XRP’s price actions in December and January, prices showed more downtrend than upside. The relative strength depicted that the asset was overbought on the 1-month scale. It recovered and continued its uptrend in July but became overbought shortly after.

Price actions since July have shown a downward trend, and the recent retracement is part of the response to the RSI’s reading.

Aside from the relative strength index, the moving average convergence divergence prints a similar sell signal. A closer look at the 1-month chart reveals that the 12 EMA is declining and edges closer to intercepting the 26 EMA. Traditionally, a massive price downtrend trails the bearish convergence and divergence.

Why Does Data From the 1-Month Chart Matter?

On several occasions, XRP adheres to signals with readings from the chart under consideration. Interestingly, signals from MACD and RSI played out in several instances.

For the relative strength index, the metric broke above 70 twice, only to decline sharply. However, there is more to the breakout. In 2021, the altcoin retraced by 83% after it became overbought. In 2019, it lost a whopping 93% before recovering.

A closer look at how prices performed after the asset was overbought in January showed it retraced by over 51% before rebounding. The most recent decline saw the asset lose over 55% before rebounding. 

Aside from RSI, the moving average convergence is another indicator that the asset almost always adheres to. Since 2017, XRP has had two bearish crossovers with devastating effects on prices. The first resulted in an 80% drop before recovery, while the second led to a 66% decline.

Based on recent analysis, it is clear that RSI and MACD readings can significantly impact prices. It is almost inevitable for prices to ignore these indicators. 

How Will Recent Readings Affect XRP?

XRP may be gearing up for further declines. Its recent retracement to $1.80 and recovery may be a dark foreboding of what is to come.

Using the relative strength index, the asset typically loses a whopping 70% after becoming overbought. To put this into perspective, the asset peaked at $3.70 in July. Counting down from this mark will pit XRP at the threshold of $1.

Aside from RSI, prior price action suggests that a further decline following a MACD bearish crossover is inevitable. However, it is worth noting that the distance between the 12 and 26 EMA remains significantly large.

Nonetheless, a negative divergence is almost inevitable. A closer look at the 12 EMA revealed a slight drop in upward momentum earlier in 2025, but it resumed its uptrend afterwards. The attempt to continue the bullish run amid is not new, as it has happened in other cases. The result remains the same, a bearish interception.

On average, XRP loses 76% after such a crossing. This is where it gets interesting; the divergence has not happened yet, and it is hard to pinpoint where it will happen. The previous calculations were based on where prices were at the MACD interception.

Nonetheless, counting down 76% from the current price suggests that XRP may slip well below $1, retesting $0.60. 

While the current analysis focuses on readings from indicators and how prices may react, it does not rule out a recovery from the latest dip. As previously outlined, the moving average convergence divergence suggests that the altcoin will surge higher in the coming months.

Additionally, readings from these indicators tally with the 4-year market cycle. There is speculation that the trend has ended, as calculations indicate the bear run was supposed to start in 2025. However, many analysts predict that the recent declines are not a sign of bears taking over.

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